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Wolf's Big Board:     Tuesday, May 30, 2017     Tier One - The Big Three   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   3 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB3   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s   4 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   5 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   6 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   7 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   8 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB4   9 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   10 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB6   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB7   12 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   13 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   14 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   15 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   16 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   Tier 3 - Lower-end RB1 and WR1s, elite second options   17 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB9   18 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   19 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR10   20 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB10   21 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   22 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   23 ) Demaryius Thomas. (DEN) WR12   24 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE2   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR13   26 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR14   Tier 3.5   27 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB11   28 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB12   29 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB13   30 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB14   31 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB15   32 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR15   33 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR16   34 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB16   35 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR17   36 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR18   37 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB17   Tier 4 - Elite QBs, Solid #2 RBs + WRs, side TE1s   38 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB18   39 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   40 ) Sammy Watkins WR19   41 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   42 ) Travis Kielce (KC) TE3   43 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR20   44 ) Allen Robinson (JAC) WR21   44 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB19   45 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB20   46 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR22   47 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR23   48 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   48 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB21   49 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR24   50 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   51 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR25   52 ) Brandon Marshal (NYG) WR26   53 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR27   54 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR28   55 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   56 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB23   57 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   58 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   59 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR29   Tier 5 - Last Startable WRs and RBs + TE1 Candidates   60 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR30   61 ) Eric Decker (NYJ) WR31   62 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR32   63 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR33   64 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB24   65 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB25   66 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB26   67 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   68 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR33   69 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR34   70 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB27   71 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE7   72 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR35   73 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB28   74 ) Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) WR36   75 ) Delanie Walker TE8   76 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB29   77 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB30   78 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB31   79 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB32   80 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB33   81 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB34   82 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR38   83 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR39   84 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR40   85 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   TIer 7 - side QB1s and Top WR and RB Lottery Tickets   86 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB5   87 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB6   88 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB7   89 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB8   90 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB9   91 ) Ben Roethlisberger QB10   92 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB11   93 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB12   94 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB35   95 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB36   96 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB37   97 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB38   98 ) Davante Parker (MIA) WR41   99 ) Josh Doctson (WAS) WR42   100 ) Ted Ginn (NO) WR43  
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2016 Antonio Brown Fantasy Football Stock Profile

Name (team): 

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)

The Wolf’s PPR Ranking: 

WR1, Overall #1

E.C.R (Differential): 1 (same).    ADP (Differential): 1 (same)

Fantasy Stock Score:

Talent: 10

Among the best route runners in the history of the game, with silky smooth breaks, rapid feet, and convincing double moves. Pair this with the speed to attack every level of the field, insane body contortion skills in contested situations, a sixth sense for the defense’s soft spots, and hands of glue, you’ve Madden Created an impossible cover. Brown’s truly elite and will be in the running for the NFL’s top receiver each season.

Opportunity/Usage: 10

Consistently peppered with double digit targets each week — 195 last season (over 12 a game) and 182 the year before (over 11 per contest). In fact, in 2015 Antonio Brown never dipped below double digit looks in any of Big Ben’s starts, only falling below this number when Landry Jones or Michael Vick were behind center. As the apple of Ben’s eye (targeted an absurd 23 and 18 times on separate occasions in 2016), Brown’s weekly and seasonal usage floors are the highest in the fantasy game. Will see even more volume in Weeks 1-4 during Le’Veon Bell’s suspension.

Scheme: 10

Todd Haley is among the brightest offensive coordinators out there, consistently having his team towards the league’s lead in scoring. While Brown certainly does his part in finding space, Haley’s creative route trees definitely helps. Will keep the ball in the air even in the red zone, which is great for a body contortionist of AB’s level.

Surrounding Talent: 10

Brown plays alongside one of the game’s great QBs in Big Ben, who seemingly looks to Brown on his first, second, and third reads. This not only keeps Antonio’s floor high, but also creates a MASSIVE ceiling– 23 targets, 17 catches, and 284 yards in one week levels of upside

No other receiver has a QB this talented and this willing to chuck it their way. AB also benefits from the presence of Le’veon Bell, as defense’s cannot just scheme the elite receiver out of the game. A strong, mostly returning core group of offensive line provides the time needed for AB to dazzle corners and find the holes in the coverage.

Risk: 9.5

While AB’s floor has been emphasized throughout, let’s really drive it home: Entering October 2015 (when Big Ben went down and Brown dealt with the gaggle of Landry Jones and Mike Vick), Antonio had been riding a 35 game streak of at least 5 catches, and 50 yards. 35 GAMES! You’re essentially guaranteed double digit fantasy points each week, and still get to roll out a week-winning ceiling: 4 games with 185+ yards, again reiterating that insane 17 catch, 284 yard effort.

Plus, he’s been an iron-man, playing in all 16 contests in 4 out of the last 5 seasons. No one else in the NFL can come close to matching this floor / ceiling combination. Really, the only blemish on AB’s value is not his own health, but that of his QB. As mentioned, his insane 35 game catch/yard streak was only broken once Big Ben was out of the lineup. Given the massive QBs reckless style of play and reluctance to go down, this does remain a slight concern for 2016. AB has not proven fully QB Proof quite yet.

But when you’re only real risk is someone else’s well-being, you’re a pretty damn safe prospect.

Overall Stock Score: 49.5 / 50, Elite.

Ceiling Projection: 155 catches, 2100 yards, 15 TDs

Floor Projection: 130 catches, 1800 yards, 10 TDs

Bottom Line:

No one else should be on your mind at #1 overall, in any format but especially PPR. Brown’s floor/ceiling combination is unparalleled, and his ceiling is even higher in the wake of Le’Veon’s early season suspension. Brown put together a brilliant 136 catch, 1,834 yard, 10 TD season in 2015, despite a quarter of his season being tanked by the Vick and Landry show. This suggests we may not have even seen Brown’s highest seasonal ceiling yet.

Consider this: in the 12 games Big Ben played in 2015, Brown recorded 119 catches, 1599 yards, and 10 TDs. Those are elite, WR1 numbers for a full season slate. A full season at this pace? 158 catches, 2132 yards, 13 TDs. Historic. With Le’Veon’s suspension and a full slate of games from both AB and Ben, these numbers aren’t overly far fetched. Brown will be a cornerstone on countless fantasy rosters, and will make owners look foolish should they pass him up at #1.

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