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Wolf's Big Board:     Tuesday, May 30, 2017     Tier One - The Big Three   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   3 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB3   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s   4 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   5 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   6 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   7 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   8 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB4   9 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   10 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB6   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB7   12 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   13 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   14 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   15 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   16 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   Tier 3 - Lower-end RB1 and WR1s, elite second options   17 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB9   18 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   19 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR10   20 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB10   21 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   22 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   23 ) Demaryius Thomas. (DEN) WR12   24 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE2   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR13   26 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR14   Tier 3.5   27 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB11   28 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB12   29 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB13   30 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB14   31 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB15   32 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR15   33 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR16   34 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB16   35 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR17   36 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR18   37 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB17   Tier 4 - Elite QBs, Solid #2 RBs + WRs, side TE1s   38 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB18   39 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   40 ) Sammy Watkins WR19   41 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   42 ) Travis Kielce (KC) TE3   43 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR20   44 ) Allen Robinson (JAC) WR21   44 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB19   45 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB20   46 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR22   47 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR23   48 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   48 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB21   49 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR24   50 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   51 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR25   52 ) Brandon Marshal (NYG) WR26   53 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR27   54 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR28   55 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   56 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB23   57 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   58 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   59 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR29   Tier 5 - Last Startable WRs and RBs + TE1 Candidates   60 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR30   61 ) Eric Decker (NYJ) WR31   62 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR32   63 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR33   64 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB24   65 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB25   66 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB26   67 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   68 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR33   69 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR34   70 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB27   71 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE7   72 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR35   73 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB28   74 ) Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) WR36   75 ) Delanie Walker TE8   76 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB29   77 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB30   78 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB31   79 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB32   80 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB33   81 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB34   82 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR38   83 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR39   84 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR40   85 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   TIer 7 - side QB1s and Top WR and RB Lottery Tickets   86 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB5   87 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB6   88 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB7   89 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB8   90 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB9   91 ) Ben Roethlisberger QB10   92 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB11   93 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB12   94 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB35   95 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB36   96 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB37   97 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB38   98 ) Davante Parker (MIA) WR41   99 ) Josh Doctson (WAS) WR42   100 ) Ted Ginn (NO) WR43  
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Why Latavius Murray is the best mid-round RB to target

It’s the end of the third round/early fourth round and you are starting to panic because you don’t have a running back yet.  This is where I see a lot of uneducated drafters make the mistake of picking a player based on their favorite site’s rankings, or by looking at a players average draft position.  For this specific example I want to point compare five running backs.

Which mystery player would you pick, based on their ADP and statistics?

Player 1:

ADP: 29.5

2015 Stats: 147 carries, 906 total yards,  9 receptions and 5 total TDs

Standard League Point Total: 111

PPR Point Total: 120


Player 2:

ADP: 34.5

2015 Stats: 152 carries, 903 total yards, 25 receptions and 3 total TDs

Standard League Point Total: 103

PPR Point Total: 128


Player 3:

ADP: 36.8

2015 Stats: 218 carries, 1287 total yards, 44 receptions and 7 total TDs

Standard League Point Total: 159

PPR Point Total: 203


Player 4:

ADP: 37

2015 Stats: 115 carries, 523 total yards,  11 receptions and 3 total TDs

Standard League Point Total: 66

PPR Point Total: 77


Player 5:

ADP: 42

2015 Stats: 266 carries,1298 total yards, 41 receptions and 4 total TDs

Standard League Point Total: 148

PPR Point Total: 189


Having seen the numbers, you should know that Player 1 was Thomas Rawls, Player 2 was CJ Anderson, Player 3 was Matt Forte, Player 4 was Carlos Hyde, and Player 5 was Latavius Murray.

Understanding that what a player does the year before shouldn’t dictate exactly where you draft him the following year, but it needs to be taken into consideration.  First, Murray has been blessed with what Pro Football Focus says might be the best offensive line in the NFL. The second main point is that his playcaller is Bill Musgrave, who already has a 2,000 yard rusher under his belt. Another reason why we are high on Murray is because of the five players mentioned above, Murray is the only one who has missed one game or less over the past two seasons (Anderson 2, Forte 3, Rawls 3 Hyde 11).

While Murray might not possess the same skill-set as Forte, he’s younger and in a much better situation. We would also put him above Rawls because the Seahawks invested three draft picks in running backs, which is never a good sign, and Rawls’ workload is no guarantee. We simply can’t trust Hyde to stay healthy (no to mention his team sucks) and CJ Anderson is going to have issues when opposing defenses stack the box with Mark Sanchez under center.

When you are faced with the dilemma of choosing between these five running backs on draft day, I encourage you to look Murray’s way.

5 Comments

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  5. Libby

    May 19, 2017 at 11:41 pm

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