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Wolf's Big Board:     Monday, May 29, 2017     Tier One - The Big Three   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   3 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB3   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s   4 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   5 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   6 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   7 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   8 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB4   9 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   10 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB6   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB7   12 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   13 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   14 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   15 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   16 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   Tier 3 - Lower-end RB1 and WR1s, elite second options   17 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB9   18 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   19 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR10   20 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB10   21 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   22 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   23 ) Demaryius Thomas. (DEN) WR12   24 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE2   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR13   26 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR14   Tier 3.5   27 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB11   28 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB12   29 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB13   30 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB14   31 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB15   32 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR15   33 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR16   34 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB16   35 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR17   36 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR18   37 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB17   Tier 4 - Elite QBs, Solid #2 RBs + WRs, side TE1s   38 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB18   39 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   40 ) Sammy Watkins WR19   41 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   42 ) Travis Kielce (KC) TE3   43 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR20   44 ) Allen Robinson (JAC) WR21   44 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB19   45 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB20   46 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR22   47 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR23   48 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   48 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB21   49 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR24   50 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   51 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR25   52 ) Brandon Marshal (NYG) WR26   53 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR27   54 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR28   55 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   56 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB23   57 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   58 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   59 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR29   Tier 5 - Last Startable WRs and RBs + TE1 Candidates   60 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR30   61 ) Eric Decker (NYJ) WR31   62 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR32   63 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR33   64 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB24   65 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB25   66 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB26   67 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   68 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR33   69 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR34   70 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB27   71 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE7   72 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR35   73 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB28   74 ) Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) WR36   75 ) Delanie Walker TE8   76 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB29   77 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB30   78 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB31   79 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB32   80 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB33   81 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB34   82 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR38   83 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR39   84 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR40   85 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   TIer 7 - side QB1s and Top WR and RB Lottery Tickets   86 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB5   87 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB6   88 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB7   89 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB8   90 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB9   91 ) Ben Roethlisberger QB10   92 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB11   93 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB12   94 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB35   95 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB36   96 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB37   97 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB38   98 ) Davante Parker (MIA) WR41   99 ) Josh Doctson (WAS) WR42   100 ) Ted Ginn (NO) WR43  
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Stock Down: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on the decline due to Broncos QB concerns

The Wolf recently put out his updated Top 150 Big Board that had Demaryius Thomas trending upwards (#25 overall #13 WR) after a strong showing in the preseason with Mark Sanchez. Across from Thomas is his teammate Emmanuel Sanders, who is currently rated 94th overall (#43 WR) on Wolf’s Big Board.

It’s funny how fast things change.

When your starting quarterback heading into Week 1 is Mark Sanchez, things don’t look very good. But compared to what they dealt with last season, there was some sense of optimism for both receivers. After a poor training camp, it looks like Sanchez could be cut even slide down to third on the depth chart in favor of no-name Trevor Siemian and rookie Paxton Lynch. The Denver Broncos have had quite the quarterback carousel over the past 5 years, which paints an ugly picture for Broncos’ receivers.

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Thomas was drafted in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, along with Tim Tebow. As fun as it was to root for Tebow, he was not a very good quarterback. Thomas’ first two seasons in Denver saw him post a combined statline of 54 catches for 834 yards and 6 touchdowns. By comparison, Benjamin Watson’s 2015 season looked very similar, but with 20 fewer receptions for Thomas.

Fast forward to 2012 with the arrival of Peyton Manning. With Manning behind center, Thomas posted three straight seasons of at least 90 catches, 1,300 yards and double digit scores. When Sanders walked away from Pittsburgh after the 2013 season as a free agent, his career catapulted once he signed with Denver over New England. Working as Manning’s No.  2 target, Sanders utilized his speed and elite route running abilities to the tune of 101 catches, 1,404 yards and 10 touchdowns in his first season with Manning and Co.

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Last season when Manning became a corpse and was partially replaced by Brock Osweiler, Thomas saw his numbers take a hit, as he gracefully fell from the Elite WR1 category. The big wideout finished with only 6 touchdowns on the year, the first time he was held under double digit touchdowns since he was catching ducks from Tebow.

Sanders’ numbers also dropped, but that was expected due to the importance of timing and trust with that was developed with manning. His numbers dipped from a 101/1,404/9 statline in 2015 to a 76/1,135/6 line in 2016.

After the Broncos somehow won the Super Bowl with a dead quarterback, Manning rode off into the sunset.

Enter Trevor Siemian from Northwestern. He was a 7th round pick in the 2015 draft and has played one snap in the NFL, a kneel down. During his first three seasons in college, Siemian only started three times before taking over the role for good his last year and he only played 11 games before tearing an ACL. The former Wildcat threw 7 touchdowns and 11 interceptions that year, and he is likely the leading candidate to lead the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. Crazy stuff.

Here are the numbers through two preseason games with Siemian at QB:

  • Trevor Siemien – 17-26, 163 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT
  • Demaryius Thomas – 1 catch, 10 yards
  • Emmanuel Sanders – 3 catches, 24 yards

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If it’s the rookie from Memphis (Lynch) that somehow gets the starting nod, know that he was drafted similarly to Carson Wentz, where the team sees him as the future quarterback, not someone ready to step in right away and compete for a Super Bowl.

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From a fantasy perspective, Thomas still remains a targeted receiver, with an ADP of 27. Sure, the talent and ceiling are still there based on his great amount of skill and his ability to come down with jump balls, but his fantasy floor has dropped immensely. Thomas used to be one of the safest WR plays in all of football and now he’s a major red flag because of Denver’s piss poor QB play.

With Sanders, his ADP is currently at 62. Similarly to Thomas, his floor has been lowered tremendously while having a limited ceiling. Receivers like Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones and Sterling Shepard have much lower ADPs, but offer a far greater ceiling for this season and beyond. I would be much more comfortable going with one of those three guys above, than the Broncos’ slot guy.

One of the main problems with starting either of the young and inexperienced quarterbacks is that they will most likely go back to coach Gary Kubiak’s bread-and-butter; which is running the football. CJ Anderson was already billed to have a big season, along with the optimism surrounding rookie running back Devontae Booker, it would make sense to pound the rock and limit mistakes by the young signal caller.

Overall, stay clear of these two receivers on draft day. When we’re all sitting back laughing at the Broncos for having potentially the worst QB stable, you can join in with us knowing some other fool spent a second rounder on Demaryius Thomas, or a fifth rounder on Emmanuel Sanders.

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