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Fantasy Politics: Donald Trump Betting Lines March 26th – April 2nd

Well, we warned you.

Repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, is easier said than done.

Stubborn Republicans refused to hand President Trump what would have been a landmark achievement and one of his signature campaign promises.

First, a vote was delayed Thursday in the hopes Trump, a self-professed “closer,” could drum up more support. As it became apparent Friday afternoon the ayes wouldn’t take the day, though, the American Health Care Act was pulled from the House floor.

“Moving from the opposition party to a governing party comes with some growing pains,” Speaker Paul Ryan said at a Friday afternoon presser. “And, well, we’re feeling those growing pains today.”

The failure shouldn’t have come as a surprise. Moderate Republicans chafed when they learned 24 million would become uninsured as a product of the bill. Far-right GOP members, part of the Freedom Caucus, railed that the bill didn’t go far enough to dismantle the health care law. It seems a repeal and NO replace would have sufficed for them.

As the week drew to  close, Trump revised the bill in a last-ditch effort to appease the Freedom Caucus. The rub: While paring down the bill more aligned to those members’ wishes, it made the legislation even less palatable to more-mainstream Republicans.

This just wasn’t going to work.

National politics in the coming week must be viewed through that lens: Even with control of Congress and the White House, the Republicans failed their first test at governance.

Trump, for his part, assigned blame across the aisle and vowed a future victory.

Enough of my amateur analysis and time for some (amateur) betting lines for the week of March 26 – April 2:

Over/under tweetstorms from Trump = 1.5

Prediction: Over, 2

I’m less bullish than I was a couple weeks ago. Trump is switching topics a ton on his Twitter feed, leaving us with fewer tweetstorms, defined as four or more tweets in quick succession on the same subjects. My guess is as he simmers over this defeat we’ll get at least two tweetstorms about how every one else (except him) derailed the health care bill.

Over/under on number of zingers at the end of his Tweet = 8.5

Prediction: Over, 10

While Trump has refrained from long Twitter rants, he’s still sending out plenty of messages 140 characters at a time, many ending with a zinger: FAKE NEWS!, for example. He nearly covered last week, with six zingers. And a quick aside: About 75 percent of his tweets, if not more, end in exclamation points. Their overuse nearly renders them meaningless.

And who will have the worst week on the Beltway?

Reince Priebus: -200 (DC correspondents are saying Trump’s chief of staff is catching much of the flak for the fallout over the health care bill)

Democrats: -150 (Makes sense for Trump to bash the other party, right?)

Kellyanne Conway: +100 (Has been eerily quiet after peddling Ivanka Trump’s wares and intimating a microwave oven could be co-opted for snooping)

Paul Ryan: +200 (Trump has praised the speaker, but he must be a bit peeved Ryan couldn’t whip up the votes for the health care bill)

Steve Bannon (formerly of Breitbart): +1,000 (This man can do no wrong in the eyes of Trump. Kinda terrifying)

What are your predictions for the week? Comment below or hit us up on Twitter. Check back at the end of the week for a wrap-up of the week’s events in the White House.

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