Fantasy Football Rankings 2017: Post-Free Agency Running Backs

Tier Four – Less clear, still attractive RB2s

The following situations are still unsettled, but the following backs carry significant upside if workloads shake out appropriately. 

15. Bilal Powell (NYJ)?

I absolutely love Powell’s talent; he’s incredibly shifty in the hole and deceptively powerful for his size, ala Dion Lewis. This ranking assumes he enters 2017 as the starter, which is admittedly a huge leap to take, especially with Chan Gailey since departed. Nonetheless, I’d be a heavy investor in Powell if the workload and coordinator fit are right. Look at his 2016 game logs in Forte’s absence:

• Week 14 @ SF:  179 total yards, 2 TDs (5 receptions)
• Week 15 vs MIA: 162 total yards, 11 receptions
• Week 16 @ NE: 74 total yards, 2 catches
• Week 17  vs. BUF: 137 total yards, 1 TD (3 receptions)

Monstrous upside if he’s fed properly. Fingers crossed they find the right play caller and Powell avoids any significant competition.

16. Isaiah Crowell (CLE) ↗ (Previously RB27)

Stock Update: Crowell rockets up the rankings in the wake of Cleveland’s massive line upgrades. The mauling Kevin Zietler at right guard and sturdy JC Tretter at center join an already beefy front cast to create one of the top-five lines in football. Meanwhile, dating back to the days where he made a bonafide RB1 out of Darren McFadden, head coach Hue Jackson schemes brilliant run games, and now he finally has the big boys to execute. If Crowell dodges some draft day bullets, he’ll drip in RB1 upside and launch up the ranks even further.

Previous Assessment: The Crow topped 12 points (.5 PPR) in four of five games with RGIII under center, which makes complete sense; RGIII’s dual threat as a runner creates more open cutback lanes, which jives with Crowell’s one-cut-and-go running style. If Griffin or a running QB is given the starting job, and Crowell’s still the lead horse, he’ll be bumped into the dependable RB2 range.  I’m skeptical of either happening.

17. Ty Montgomery (GB)   ↗(Previously RB24) 

Stock Up Update: Montgomery rises six spots thanks to Eddie Lacy‘s massive departure, in addition to a recent endorsement from head coach Mike McCarthy. When asked if Montgomery could be a true #1 runner:

“I think Ty definitely has that ability,” McCarthy told reporters at the NFL annual meetings in Phoenix. “Obviously it’s a very heavy lifting position, so availability will be Ty’s No. 1 statistic.

“He’s a very talented young man, very bright, obviously understands the whole perimeter part of the offense now, so his utilization and the variation that he gives us as far as alignments and assignments and the different things that he can do will definitely benefit us as far as our offensive scheme. He just needs to have a great offseason … but this is a big opportunity for him.”

Indeed, the opportunity is absolutely massive, both for real-life and, more importantly, fantasy. As explored in great depth here, the starting Packers running back is in a dreamboat situation: McCarthy’s historic track record (11/17 lead runners have produced bonafide RB1 seasons) + explosive surrounding skill talent to keep boxes light and scoring chances plentiful + a sturdy line to pave the way = Grade A Fantasy Set Up.

The real question, then, is whether or not Montgomery is that guy.   Though this coach speak suggests he could be, last year’s action suggests otherwise.  Montgomery only had double-digit carries one time — a 16 rush effort in Week 15 versus Chicago. He certainly responded and flashed his upside, ripping off 162 yards and 2 TDs.  Still, the team never treated him like a featured back, so why would that change?

2017’s draft is obviously crucial for Montgomery’s value.  Stacked with talent, it seems highly unlikely the team forgoes adding a single rusher.  Who this runner is, and how much of the backfield he’ll project to own, is absolutely crucial.  If Montgomery leaves draft day fairly unscathed, he’ll shoot up head of Gurley. That’s how sexy this situation is.

Previous Assessment: Eddie Lacy’s tub ass hits free agency in 2017, which factors heavily into Mongtogomery’s fantasy value.  Should the converted wideout be the main backfield option, he’ll skyrocket into the “RB2 w/ RB1 upside” group. If Lacy returns, or even worse, the team pursues a more legitimate backfield mate, Montgomery could suffer.  TDs are often plentiful in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, so this is a must-watch backfield.

18. Tevin Coleman (ATL) ↘(Previously RB16)

Stock Down Update:  As covered with Devonta Freeman, this backfield’s productivity and workload distribution are all in question after Kyle Shanahan took his uber-productive zone-blocking scheme to San Francisco. Should Coleman maintain his  ~40% carry and strong red-zone / receiving role, he’ll find plenty of value with so much talent around him.  Nonetheless, this is not guaranteed, and this backfield’s makeup needs to be heavily monitored throughout OTAs and training camps.

Previous Assessment: Love his sturdy RB2 appeal even when in a committee, and top-five RB ceiling in the event of a Devonta injury.  One of the best middle round investments owners can make. Big Coleman guy.

19. Paul Perkins↗?  (Previously RB32 + RB24)

Stock Up Update: Perkins received a massive +8 boost following Rashad Jennings’ release, and he now climbs five spots further after dodging all the free agency bullets so far.  Additionally, Perkins is helped by Brandon Marshall‘s explosive addition, which should help keep boxes light and the team in the red zone. The Giants are rumored to be interested in adding a big-back, which would obviously dent Perkins’ scoring upside and overall fantasy value, especially with Shane Vereen siphoning receptions.  As things stand, however, we’ve got a 15+ carry guy in an ascending offense, and those certainly don’t grow on trees. 

Previous Assessment: After weeks of pussy-footing, the Giants finally began unleashing Perkins down 2016’s stretch; the rookie rewarded them with a 100 yard Week 17 effort that helped them control the clock and keep a divisional rival in Washington out of the playoffs. Still, Perkins didn’t leap off the page as anything special ever, and, with Eli Manning in decline, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Giants go for a huge splash at the position. Plenty to still be seen here, but this ranking assumes a committee role at best.

20. Robert Kelley (WAS)   (Previously RB24)

Stock Up Update:  The offseason whisperings around Kelley have been contradicting thus far.  Early in January, Jay Gruden was singing his praises, stating:

Gruden says he thinks Rob Kelley had a "great, great year" and sees him as his feature back for next season.

— Mike Jones (@ByMikeJones) January 2, 2017

Local beat writers then added fuel to this fire, stating “A 1,000 yard season is certainly in play for 2017.”

Enter flaccidity. Most recently, Gruden suggested the team could be looking to add a difference maker via the draft.  When asked about his current stable of backs, Gruden stated: “When you get a great one, it makes a team different. And it takes a team from a pretender to an immediate contender. We’re all looking for that.”   No, us Kelley Dynasty owners or enthusiasts are not looking for that, Jay.

Thus, just like many in this tier, Kelley remains a clear “wait-and-see.”

21. CJ Anderson (DEN) ↘?

Stock Down Update: I did a little digging, and it turns out new coordinator Mike McCoy isn’t exactly a run-game aficionado. Actually, he’s the complete opposite. Check out the following stats from his years as head coach or offensive coordinator:

Key takeaways:

• Rushing Yardage: McCoy coordinated teams have only finished in the top half of rushing yardage in two of eight seasons (25%), which includes the Tim Tebow era when it was run or bust.  Throwing out that anomaly, leaves us at 1 of 7 times a McCoy team has (barely) cracked the top half of the league in rushing yards (13th rank).  Contrastingly, 50% of the time his teams have ranked 26th or lower.
• TDs: McCoy’s teams have never topped 13 rushing TDs, and have only ranked in the top half of the league for rushing scores two of eight (25%), again including the Tebow shitshow. Conversely, they’ve finished 19th or below 75% of the time in the scoring department.
• Attempts: 50% of the time McCoy’s teams have ranked 22nd or lower in rushing attempts

Now, as the Tebow fiasco suggests, McCoy will coach to his talent, and Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch behind center should dictate carries. Still, this historic lack of success is definitely concerning.  Couple this with Anderson’s extensive injury history, and I’m suddenly a lot lower on the Broncos bellcow, Booker’s struggles notwithstanding. Sure, he’s among a handful of few guaranteed lead backs and looked strong in his 2016 starts, but in an unproductive scheme with an eventual breakdown coming, will these even matter?

Previous Assessment: So injury prone, despite looking strong in his 2016 starts. New Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy shouldn’t hurt, and Devontae Booker completely floundered, so the door is open for more RB1 games, but Anderson has yet to make it through a full season.

Read on for the guys with some major question marks but huge upside, and thus make ideal flexes