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Wolf's Big Board:     Monday, May 29, 2017     Tier One - The Big Three   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   3 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB3   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s   4 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   5 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   6 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   7 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   8 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB4   9 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   10 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB6   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB7   12 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   13 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   14 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   15 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   16 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   Tier 3 - Lower-end RB1 and WR1s, elite second options   17 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB9   18 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   19 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR10   20 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB10   21 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   22 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   23 ) Demaryius Thomas. (DEN) WR12   24 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE2   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR13   26 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR14   Tier 3.5   27 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB11   28 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB12   29 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB13   30 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB14   31 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB15   32 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR15   33 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR16   34 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB16   35 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR17   36 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR18   37 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB17   Tier 4 - Elite QBs, Solid #2 RBs + WRs, side TE1s   38 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB18   39 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   40 ) Sammy Watkins WR19   41 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   42 ) Travis Kielce (KC) TE3   43 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR20   44 ) Allen Robinson (JAC) WR21   44 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB19   45 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB20   46 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR22   47 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR23   48 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   48 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB21   49 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR24   50 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   51 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR25   52 ) Brandon Marshal (NYG) WR26   53 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR27   54 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR28   55 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   56 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB23   57 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   58 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   59 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR29   Tier 5 - Last Startable WRs and RBs + TE1 Candidates   60 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR30   61 ) Eric Decker (NYJ) WR31   62 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR32   63 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR33   64 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB24   65 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB25   66 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB26   67 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   68 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR33   69 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR34   70 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB27   71 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE7   72 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR35   73 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB28   74 ) Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) WR36   75 ) Delanie Walker TE8   76 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB29   77 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB30   78 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB31   79 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB32   80 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB33   81 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB34   82 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR38   83 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR39   84 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR40   85 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   TIer 7 - side QB1s and Top WR and RB Lottery Tickets   86 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB5   87 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB6   88 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB7   89 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB8   90 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB9   91 ) Ben Roethlisberger QB10   92 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB11   93 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB12   94 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB35   95 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB36   96 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB37   97 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB38   98 ) Davante Parker (MIA) WR41   99 ) Josh Doctson (WAS) WR42   100 ) Ted Ginn (NO) WR43  
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Alshon Jeffery Fantasy Football Stock Profile: Will a Change of Scenery Make Jeffery Fantasy-Relevant Again?

Alshon Jeffery

Position: Wide Receiver

Former Team: Chicago Bears

New Team: Philadelphia Eagles

Movement Summary

Alshon Jeffery was one of the biggest free agent acquisitions this offseason, signing with Philadelphia on a one-year, $14 million deal. The Eagles had been saying all season that new franchise QB Carson Wentz needed more weapons around him to properly grow, so they went out and signed the talented Jeffery to be Wentz’s No. 1 wide receiver. After injuries and a lack of consistent targets despite Brandon Marshall’s departure, Alshon’s put up back-to-back unspectacular fantasy seasons. Nonetheless, Jeffery bet on himself by signing a one-year deal with Philly, so should we double down with him? Check out his Fantasy Stock Profile for more:

Talent: 9/10

Talent has never been the issue with Jeffery. Few NFL receivers possess his downfield and jump ball skills, which are downright terrifying giving when combined with his 6’3″ frame. This gives him an uncanny and special ability to go up and grab the ball at its highest point over nearly any corner.  Secondaries are forced to provide safety help over the top, otherwise he’ll just use his size to feast. To pair with his length, Jeffery also has massive hands — measuring at 10 1/4″. Those large pair of mitts allow him to suffocate the ball and act as a huge target for his quarterback.

Image result for alshon jeffery gif

While Jeffery possesses all the tools needed in the deep/jump ball game, what he’s missing is elite vertical speed. Brandin Cooks is a player with elite speed who creates separation downfield to dust his opponents. Jeffery won’t be doing that to secondaries, therefore he utilizes his size to manhandle opposing cornerbacks downfield. Jeffery is one of the bigger physical specimens in the NFL, he just needs to add consistency to his game.

Opportunity + Usage: 9/10

The Eagles signed Jeffery with every intention of making him the primary weapon of the offense.  Amidst useful but unspectacular talents such as Torrey Smith, Jordan Matthews, and Zach Ertz, Jeffery should have every opportunity to command the lions share of receiving work.  The team averaged a robust 37 pass attempts last season, meaning plenty of aerial volume is up for grabs, and after a drop-filled season from his pathetic wideouts last year, Wentz will assuredly be locked into his mammoth #1 man.

The concerning aspect, though, is Philadelphia’s lacking passing game. In 2016, Wentz averaged 236.4 yards per game while throwing only 16 touchdowns (1 per game average). Hopefully, the addition of Jeffery will add to Wentz’ totals, but there is concern about how much this offense can produce. Granted it was the rookie’s first year in the NFL, but can we expect that big of a jump from year one to year two? Still, the 37 passing attempts per game though is an encouraging sign that Wentz is looking to throw. There’s no stud running back on the Eagles’ roster, so Wentz and Alshon are likely to be the new face of Philadelphia’s offense.

Coaching Scheme: 6.5/10

Doug Pederson’s offense is quite different than what we saw under Chip Kelly, but more similar to what Andy Reid runs in Kansas City. It’s not a flashy system, but rather more efficient and methodical as it moves downfield. Pederson likes to utilize the tight end  and running backs, as you can see by his time in Kansas City and how the Eagles played last season. This philosophy isn’t a perfect fit for Jeffery’s skill set, as it’s not a big play offense and they don’t take a lot of shots downfield. The Eagles won’t spread receivers four or five wide and rain fire on opposing secondaries. Still, in an attempt to control the clock, the offense will pepper the intermediate parts of the field where Alshon can use his size to dominate slants and hitches. Unless things drastically change, we don’t love the fit from a schematic standpoint, but Pederson has also never had a specimen of Alshon’s nature to work with.

Surrounding Talent: 7.5/10

For a receiver, the most crucial piece of surrounding talent is obviously the quarterback, in which case Carson Wentz is still a relative unknown.  Despite averaging a meager 236.4 yards per game while throwing only 16 touchdowns (1 per game average), Wentz still flashed some big time throwing ability, and the low totals seem more reflective of the poor weapons he had at his disposal, and not Wentz’s own ability.

Speaking of those poor weapons, they reflect both a blessing and curse for Alshon (definitely more a blessing, however).  None of Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, or Torrey Smith seem talented enough to siphon “lead targets” from Alshon, yet they all have skillsets to draw some attention.  However, a year after Ertz led this team in receiving, Alshon could be facing some double teams. Hopefully Smith’s deep speed is still in tact after a brief stay in the wasteland of San Francisco.

Meanwhile, the backfield isn’t anything to write home about either. Led by Mr. Glass himself Ryan Mathews, the Eagles failed to record a 1,000 yard rusher. It was predominately a three-headed attack consisting of Mathews, Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood. None of these backs are real threats or studs, so defenses don’t have to worry about putting more defenders up front. They’ve been linked to many of the talented backs in this class, so this could improve, but as of now the run game isn’t taking much heat into the box, nor stealing a ton of work from the passing game.

Risk: 6.5/10

Jeffery is far from a surefire lock in terms of fantasy receivers, mainly because of his availability. Jeffery has missed 11 games over the past two seasons thanks to injuries and PED use, and both remain major red flags for his 2017 stock. Additionally, although the Eagles chucked the rock a healthy 37 times a game last season, overall improvement, especially in the backfield, which could lessen this load.  There’s also the risk factor of having a young QB in Wentz who will be looking to avoid a sophomore slump. Ideally, another year in Pederson’s offense should give him more scheme familiarity to maximize his shiny new toy out wide.

 

Overall Stock Score: 38.5 / 50, C+ 

Ceiling Scenario/Projection:  Motivated by his one-year deal, Alshon finally maintains his health and ascends to the true “alpha WR1” role he’s built for. In the process, an improved Carson Wentz peppers Alshon all over the field, but especially in the red area.

95 Receptions – 1,300 yds – 11 TDs

Floor Projection:  Similar to the past two years, injuries hamper Alshon while on the field, and keep him off the field for multiple games. Additionally, Doug Pederson’s offense proves too slow-paced and methodical for any receiver to truly separate, while a sophomore slump from Wentz keeps everything further grounded.

65 Receptions – 790 Yards – 6 TDs

Bottom Line: The change of scenery from deep dish to cheesesteaks, and the better quarterback play and overall usage, helps boost Jeffery’s value. Still, in a slower paced attack and hampered for part of the seasons, Alshon’s surroundings fail to propel him back into genuine WR1 territory, and he finishes as an upside WR2.

2017 Predicted Stat Line: 78 Receptions – 975 Yards – 8 TDs

We used this formula to nail David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. Check back for more Fantasy Stock Profiles throughout the off-season to stay ahead of your fantasy football league.

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