Player Stock Ticker
Wolf's Big Board:     Wednesday, June 28, 2017     Tier One - The Big Three   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   3 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB3   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s   4 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   5 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   6 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   7 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   8 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB4   9 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   10 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB6   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB7   12 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   13 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   14 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   15 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   16 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   Tier 3 - Lower-end RB1 and WR1s, elite second options   17 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB9   18 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   19 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR10   20 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB10   21 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   22 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   23 ) Demaryius Thomas. (DEN) WR12   24 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE2   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR13   26 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR14   Tier 3.5   27 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB11   28 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB12   29 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB13   30 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB14   31 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB15   32 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR15   33 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR16   34 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB16   35 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR17   36 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR18   37 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB17   Tier 4 - Elite QBs, Solid #2 RBs + WRs, side TE1s   38 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB18   39 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   40 ) Sammy Watkins WR19   41 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   42 ) Travis Kielce (KC) TE3   43 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR20   44 ) Allen Robinson (JAC) WR21   44 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB19   45 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB20   46 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR22   47 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR23   48 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   48 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB21   49 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR24   50 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   51 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR25   52 ) Brandon Marshal (NYG) WR26   53 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR27   54 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR28   55 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   56 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB23   57 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   58 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   59 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR29   Tier 5 - Last Startable WRs and RBs + TE1 Candidates   60 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR30   61 ) Eric Decker (NYJ) WR31   62 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR32   63 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR33   64 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB24   65 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB25   66 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB26   67 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   68 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR33   69 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR34   70 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB27   71 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE7   72 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR35   73 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB28   74 ) Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) WR36   75 ) Delanie Walker TE8   76 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB29   77 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB30   78 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB31   79 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB32   80 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB33   81 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB34   82 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR38   83 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR39   84 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR40   85 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   TIer 7 - side QB1s and Top WR and RB Lottery Tickets   86 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB5   87 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB6   88 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB7   89 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB8   90 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB9   91 ) Ben Roethlisberger QB10   92 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB11   93 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB12   94 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB35   95 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB36   96 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB37   97 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB38   98 ) Davante Parker (MIA) WR41   99 ) Josh Doctson (WAS) WR42   100 ) Ted Ginn (NO) WR43  

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Todd Gurley “moving all over the formation,” primed for three-down workhorse role

Todd Gurley’s “Usage” and “Coaching Scheme” scores gain nice boosts as HC Sean McVay plans to create mismatches by moving him around and maximizing his receiving abilities; OC Matt LaFluer is fully on board with “marrying” the running and passing games.

Wolf’s Take

Early offseason reports projected Todd Gurley to see a diminished receiving role despite doubling his reception totals in his sophomore campaign (about the only bright spot). Newly signed Lance Dunbar was supposed to play HC Sean McVay‘s “Chris Thompson“role, while Gurley did the majority of his damage on the early downs.

Fortunately for Gurley’s fantasy value, the on-field action suggests the complete opposite.  Early in minicamp, Gurley has reportedly been “moved around the offensive formation,” as McVay appears to be “on a mission to make Gurley more difficult to locate.”

This creative alignment and usage is a welcomed sight after Gurley was locked in Jeff Fisher‘s value-sapping torture chamber of an offense; instead of being rammed into his blockers repeatedly, Gurley’s been used on swings, jet sweeps, and really all over in the passing game:

“Occasionally, he lined up wide outside two receivers. On another snap, he motioned from out wide into the backfield before running a route in the other direction. He saw a lot of targets from quarterback  Jared Goff in the passing game, often appearing to be the primary read.” 

This aligns with OC Matt LaFluer‘s goal of having “a strong marriage with our running game and our passing game so that a defense can’t just tee off on a guy. The idea is to have a balanced attack and keep a defense guessing.”

Seems like the opposite of the earlier “Gurley first and second down, Dunbar is third down” type of prognosis.

As RotoWorld points out, this type of expanded and extensive usage could place Gurley in a rare category of three-down workhorse; moreover, Gurley has flashed the receiving chops to execute, as noted in this RotoViz article from two years ago:

“First, let’s consider Gurley’s college receiving production. Gurley had 65 career receptions for 615 receiving yards, six TDs, and 9.5 yards per reception average. Contrast that with someone like Peterson, who had only 24 receptions in his college career despite seeing 238 more carries than Gurley. When Shawn Siegele put Gurley through the RB Prospect Lab last offseason, he came out with an incredible score. One of the inputs? Final year receptions per game. Kevin Cole’s RB projection model gave Gurley the most favorable prediction of any RB from the 2014 and 2015 classes. One of the inputs? Final year receptions. Given Gurley’s strong raw receiving production, and his favorable projections from models that incorporate receiving, there is more than enough reason to believe he has the potential to be a heavily utilized receiving RB in the future.”

While Gurley’s natural talent is on par with elite workhorses like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, a role of similarly huge usage wouldn’t likely yield equally monstrous results. Mainly, he’s tied to Jared Goff, who makes me throw up a little every time I type his name. Sure, reports suggest Goff is moving “surprisingly fast” in picking the offense up and is having an “easier time” in this more creative yet simpler scheme. I don’t care. Until he makes a single legitimate NFL play, I’m not sold. The stacked boxes and minimal scoring chances won’t change without a major step forward, better scheme and usage withstanding.

Still, Gurley remains a major offseason “Winner.”  His line has been beefed up thanks to the mauling addition of LT Andrew Whitworth, plus (somewhat) stabilizing center Jason Sullivan provides depth at their weakest position. He projects to be used far more creatively in both the running and receiving game. Additional outside weapons in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have been added.  If Goff can be even mildly competent, a Gurley revival seems likely. He’s among the highest upside RB2s out there, and his top-five ceiling is far more real in light of his newfound role.

 

We are the ‘Watchers on the RotoWall,’ and indeed, the RotoWorld Blurbs can be dark and full of terrors (re: nonsense on backup right guards and their contract disputes). Instead, bookmark our Fantasy Football Stock Watch, and let us sift through the nonsense to bring you the blurbs that actually matter, with the in-depth analysis we’re known for.  A Fantasy Wolf doesn’t miss a single stock market move, so don’t be a sheep.

One Comment

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    June 21, 2017 at 10:28 pm

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