Player Stock Ticker
The Wolf's Big Board:     Tuesday, August 22, 2017       Tier One - The Big Three ($65 - $75)   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s ($50-$65)   3 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   4 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   5 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   6 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   7 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB3   8 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   9 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   10 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB6   12 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB7   13 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   14 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   15 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB9   Tier 3 - Remaining WR1s, Potential RB1s, and Gronk ($38 - $45)   16 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   17 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   18 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB10   19 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   20 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR10   21 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   22 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB11   23 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR12   24 ) Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR13   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR14   Tier 4 - High-End RB2 and WRs (with No.1 upside), Elite TEs ($25 - $35)   26 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB11   27 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB12   28 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR15   29 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR16   30 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR17   31 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR18   32 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR19   33 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB13   34 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB14   35 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB15   36 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB16   37 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB17   38 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB18   39 ) Travis Kelce (KC) TE2   40 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR20   41 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR21   42 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB19   Tier 5 - Remaining #2 RB & WR options, elite QBs, High-End TE1s ($15 - $25)   43 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   44 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   45 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB20   46 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB21   47 ) Eric Decker (TEN) WR22   48 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE3   49 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR23   50 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR24   51 ) Allen Robinson (JAX) WR25   52 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   53 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR26   54 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   55 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB23   56 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB24   57 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR27   58 ) Danny Woodhead (BAL) RB25   59 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR28   60 ) Sammy Watkins (LAC) WR29   61 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB26   62 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB27   63 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   64 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   Tier 6 - Flex RBs, Upside WR3s, Quality TE1s and Elite QB ($10 - $15   65 ) Kelvin Banjamin (CAR) WR30   66 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR31   67 ) Rob Kelley (WAS) RB28   68 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB29   69 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR32   70 ) Brandon Marshall (NYG) WR33   71 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR34   72 ) DeVante Parker(MIA) WR35   73 ) LeGarrette Blount (PHI) RB30   74 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB31   75 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB32   76 ) Zach Ertz (PHI) TE7   77 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE8   78 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   79 ) Jeremy Maclin (BAL) WR36   80 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR37   81 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR38   82 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR39   83 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   84 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   85 ) Delanie Walker (TEN) TE10   Tier 7 -Elite Bench Plays, Last Startable WRs and RBs, Quality QB1s   86 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB33   87 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB34   88 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR40   89 ) Terrance West (BAL) RB35   90 ) Thomas Rawls (SEA) RB36   91 ) James White (NE) RB37   92 ) Tyrell Williams (LAC) WR41   93 ) Randall Cobb (GB) WR42   94 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR43   95 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB38   96 ) Jonathan Stewart (CR) RB39   97 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB40   98 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB5   99 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB6   100 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB7   101 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB8   102 ) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB9   103 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB10   104 ) Cam Newton (CAR) QB11   105 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB12   106 ) Russell Wilson (SEA) QB13   107 ) Duke Johnson (CLE) RB41   108 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB42   109 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB14   110 ) Tyrod Taylor (BUF) QB15   111 ) Jack Doyle (IND) TE10   112 ) Kyle Rudolph (MIN) TE11   Tier 7 - High End "Penny Stock" Bench Assets   113 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB43   114 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB44   115 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB45   116 ) Robby Anderson (NYJ) WR44   117 ) Zay Jones (BUF) WR45   118 ) John Brown (ARI) WR46   119 ) Jamaal Charles (DEN) RB46   120 ) Eric Ebron (DET) TE13   121 ) D'Onta Foreman (HOU) RB47   122 ) Taylor Gabriel (ATL) WR47   123 ) Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) RB48   124 ) Darren Sproles (PHI) RB49   125 ) Marvin Jones (DET) WR48   126 ) Ted Ginn Jr (NO) WR49   127 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR50   128 ) Kenny Golladay (DET) WR51   129 ) Jonathan Williams (BUF) RB50   130 ) Alvin Kamara (NO) RB51   131 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB52   Tier 8 - Remaining "Penny Stocks" to consider   132 ) Josh Docston (WAS) WR52   133 ) Corey Coleman (CLE) WR53   134 ) Adam Thielen (MIN) WR54   135 ) Marlon Mack (IND) RB53   136 ) Julius Thomas (MIA) TE14   137 ) Austin Hooper (ATL) TE15   138 ) Jared Cook (OAK) TE16   139 ) OJ Howard (TB) TE17   140 ) Eli Manning (NYG) QB16   141 ) Andy Dalton (CIN) QB17   142 ) Matthew Stafford (DET) QB18   143 ) Carson Palmer (ARI) QB19   144 ) Matt Forte (NYJ) RB54   145 ) Branden Oliver (LAC) RB55   146 ) Kenny Britt (CLE) WR57   147 ) Cordarelle Patterson (OAK) WR58   148 ) Rex Burkhead (NE) RB56   149 ) Tarik Cohen (CHI) RB57   150 ) Nelson Agholor (PHI) WR59  

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Todd Gurley “moving all over the formation,” primed for three-down workhorse role

Todd Gurley’s “Usage” and “Coaching Scheme” scores gain nice boosts as HC Sean McVay plans to create mismatches by moving him around and maximizing his receiving abilities; OC Matt LaFluer is fully on board with “marrying” the running and passing games.

Wolf’s Take

Early offseason reports projected Todd Gurley to see a diminished receiving role despite doubling his reception totals in his sophomore campaign (about the only bright spot). Newly signed Lance Dunbar was supposed to play HC Sean McVay‘s “Chris Thompson“role, while Gurley did the majority of his damage on the early downs.

Fortunately for Gurley’s fantasy value, the on-field action suggests the complete opposite.  Early in minicamp, Gurley has reportedly been “moved around the offensive formation,” as McVay appears to be “on a mission to make Gurley more difficult to locate.”

This creative alignment and usage is a welcomed sight after Gurley was locked in Jeff Fisher‘s value-sapping torture chamber of an offense; instead of being rammed into his blockers repeatedly, Gurley’s been used on swings, jet sweeps, and really all over in the passing game:

“Occasionally, he lined up wide outside two receivers. On another snap, he motioned from out wide into the backfield before running a route in the other direction. He saw a lot of targets from quarterback  Jared Goff in the passing game, often appearing to be the primary read.” 

This aligns with OC Matt LaFluer‘s goal of having “a strong marriage with our running game and our passing game so that a defense can’t just tee off on a guy. The idea is to have a balanced attack and keep a defense guessing.”

Seems like the opposite of the earlier “Gurley first and second down, Dunbar is third down” type of prognosis.

As RotoWorld points out, this type of expanded and extensive usage could place Gurley in a rare category of three-down workhorse; moreover, Gurley has flashed the receiving chops to execute, as noted in this RotoViz article from two years ago:

“First, let’s consider Gurley’s college receiving production. Gurley had 65 career receptions for 615 receiving yards, six TDs, and 9.5 yards per reception average. Contrast that with someone like Peterson, who had only 24 receptions in his college career despite seeing 238 more carries than Gurley. When Shawn Siegele put Gurley through the RB Prospect Lab last offseason, he came out with an incredible score. One of the inputs? Final year receptions per game. Kevin Cole’s RB projection model gave Gurley the most favorable prediction of any RB from the 2014 and 2015 classes. One of the inputs? Final year receptions. Given Gurley’s strong raw receiving production, and his favorable projections from models that incorporate receiving, there is more than enough reason to believe he has the potential to be a heavily utilized receiving RB in the future.”

While Gurley’s natural talent is on par with elite workhorses like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, a role of similarly huge usage wouldn’t likely yield equally monstrous results. Mainly, he’s tied to Jared Goff, who makes me throw up a little every time I type his name. Sure, reports suggest Goff is moving “surprisingly fast” in picking the offense up and is having an “easier time” in this more creative yet simpler scheme. I don’t care. Until he makes a single legitimate NFL play, I’m not sold. The stacked boxes and minimal scoring chances won’t change without a major step forward, better scheme and usage withstanding.

Still, Gurley remains a major offseason “Winner.”  His line has been beefed up thanks to the mauling addition of LT Andrew Whitworth, plus (somewhat) stabilizing center Jason Sullivan provides depth at their weakest position. He projects to be used far more creatively in both the running and receiving game. Additional outside weapons in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have been added.  If Goff can be even mildly competent, a Gurley revival seems likely. He’s among the highest upside RB2s out there, and his top-five ceiling is far more real in light of his newfound role.

 

We are the ‘Watchers on the RotoWall,’ and indeed, the RotoWorld Blurbs can be dark and full of terrors (re: nonsense on backup right guards and their contract disputes). Instead, bookmark our Fantasy Football Stock Watch, and let us sift through the nonsense to bring you the blurbs that actually matter, with the in-depth analysis we’re known for.  A Fantasy Wolf doesn’t miss a single stock market move, so don’t be a sheep.

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