Player Stock Ticker
The Wolf's Big Board:     Tuesday, August 22, 2017       Tier One - The Big Three ($65 - $75)   1 ) David Johnson (ARI) RB1   2 ) Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB2   Tier Two - High-end WR1 and RB1s ($50-$65)   3 ) Antonio Brown (PIT) WR1   4 ) Julio Jones (ATL) WR2   5 ) Mike Evans (TB) WR3   6 ) Odell Beckham JR. (NYG) WR4   7 ) LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB3   8 ) AJ Green (CIN) WR5   9 ) Jordy Nelson (GB) WR6   10 ) Melvin Gordon (LAC) RB5   11 ) Jay Ajayi (MIA) RB6   12 ) DeMarco Murray (TEN) RB7   13 ) Michael Thomas (NO) WR7   14 ) Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB8   15 ) Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB9   Tier 3 - Remaining WR1s, Potential RB1s, and Gronk ($38 - $45)   16 ) Dez Bryant (DAL) WR8   17 ) Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE1   18 ) Todd Gurley (LAR) RB10   19 ) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) WR9   20 ) Amari Cooper (OAK) WR10   21 ) Brandin Cooks (NE) WR11   22 ) Isaiah Crowell (CLE) RB11   23 ) TY Hilton (IND) WR12   24 ) Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR13   25 ) Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR14   Tier 4 - High-End RB2 and WRs (with No.1 upside), Elite TEs ($25 - $35)   26 ) Jordan Howard (CHI) RB11   27 ) Marshawn Lynch (OAK) RB12   28 ) Tyreek Hill (KC) WR15   29 ) Keenan Allen (LAC) WR16   30 ) Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR17   31 ) Davante Adams (GB) WR18   32 ) Terrelle Pryor (WAS) WR19   33 ) Ty Montgomery (GB) RB13   34 ) Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB14   35 ) Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB15   36 ) Joe Mixon (CIN) RB16   37 ) Leonard Fournette (JAX) RB17   38 ) Lamar Miller (HOU) RB18   39 ) Travis Kelce (KC) TE2   40 ) Michael Crabtree (OAK) WR20   41 ) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR21   42 ) Carlos Hyde (SF) RB19   Tier 5 - Remaining #2 RB & WR options, elite QBs, High-End TE1s ($15 - $25)   43 ) Tom Brady (NE) QB1   44 ) Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB2   45 ) Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB20   46 ) Mark Ingram (NO) RB21   47 ) Eric Decker (TEN) WR22   48 ) Jordan Reed (WAS) TE3   49 ) Golden Tate (DET) WR23   50 ) Alshon Jeffery (PHI) WR24   51 ) Allen Robinson (JAX) WR25   52 ) Greg Olsen (CAR) TE4   53 ) DeSean Jackson (TB) WR26   54 ) Doug Martin (TB) RB22   55 ) Adrian Peterson (NO) RB23   56 ) Spencer Ware (KC) RB24   57 ) Willie Snead (NO) WR27   58 ) Danny Woodhead (BAL) RB25   59 ) Jamison Crowder (WAS) WR28   60 ) Sammy Watkins (LAC) WR29   61 ) Tevin Coleman (ATL) RB26   62 ) Mike Gillislee (NE) RB27   63 ) Jimmy Graham (SEA) TE5   64 ) Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE6   Tier 6 - Flex RBs, Upside WR3s, Quality TE1s and Elite QB ($10 - $15   65 ) Kelvin Banjamin (CAR) WR30   66 ) Julian Edelman (NE) WR31   67 ) Rob Kelley (WAS) RB28   68 ) Theo Riddick (DET) RB29   69 ) Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR32   70 ) Brandon Marshall (NYG) WR33   71 ) Jarvis Landry (MIA) WR34   72 ) DeVante Parker(MIA) WR35   73 ) LeGarrette Blount (PHI) RB30   74 ) Ameer Abdullah (DET) RB31   75 ) CJ Anderson (DEN) RB32   76 ) Zach Ertz (PHI) TE7   77 ) Hunter Henry (LAC) TE8   78 ) Martellus Bennett (GB) TE9   79 ) Jeremy Maclin (BAL) WR36   80 ) Cameron Meredith (CHI) WR37   81 ) Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR38   82 ) Pierre Garcon (SF) WR39   83 ) Drew Brees (NO) QB3   84 ) Matt Ryan (ATL) QB4   85 ) Delanie Walker (TEN) TE10   Tier 7 -Elite Bench Plays, Last Startable WRs and RBs, Quality QB1s   86 ) Derrick Henry (TEN) RB33   87 ) CJ Prosise (SEA) RB34   88 ) Donte Moncrief (IND) WR40   89 ) Terrance West (BAL) RB35   90 ) Thomas Rawls (SEA) RB36   91 ) James White (NE) RB37   92 ) Tyrell Williams (LAC) WR41   93 ) Randall Cobb (GB) WR42   94 ) Corey Davis (TEN) WR43   95 ) Frank Gore (IND) RB38   96 ) Jonathan Stewart (CR) RB39   97 ) Paul Perkins (NYG) RB40   98 ) Derek Carr (OAK) QB5   99 ) Jameis Winston (TB) QB6   100 ) Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB7   101 ) Kirk Cousins (WAS) QB8   102 ) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB9   103 ) Philip Rivers (LAC) QB10   104 ) Cam Newton (CAR) QB11   105 ) Dak Prescott (DAL) QB12   106 ) Russell Wilson (SEA) QB13   107 ) Duke Johnson (CLE) RB41   108 ) Kareem Hunt (KC) RB42   109 ) Andrew Luck (IND) QB14   110 ) Tyrod Taylor (BUF) QB15   111 ) Jack Doyle (IND) TE10   112 ) Kyle Rudolph (MIN) TE11   Tier 7 - High End "Penny Stock" Bench Assets   113 ) Jamaal Williams (GB) RB43   114 ) Eddie Lacy (SEA) RB44   115 ) Joe Williams (SF) RB45   116 ) Robby Anderson (NYJ) WR44   117 ) Zay Jones (BUF) WR45   118 ) John Brown (ARI) WR46   119 ) Jamaal Charles (DEN) RB46   120 ) Eric Ebron (DET) TE13   121 ) D'Onta Foreman (HOU) RB47   122 ) Taylor Gabriel (ATL) WR47   123 ) Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) RB48   124 ) Darren Sproles (PHI) RB49   125 ) Marvin Jones (DET) WR48   126 ) Ted Ginn Jr (NO) WR49   127 ) Mike Wallace (BAL) WR50   128 ) Kenny Golladay (DET) WR51   129 ) Jonathan Williams (BUF) RB50   130 ) Alvin Kamara (NO) RB51   131 ) Samaje Perine (WAS) RB52   Tier 8 - Remaining "Penny Stocks" to consider   132 ) Josh Docston (WAS) WR52   133 ) Corey Coleman (CLE) WR53   134 ) Adam Thielen (MIN) WR54   135 ) Marlon Mack (IND) RB53   136 ) Julius Thomas (MIA) TE14   137 ) Austin Hooper (ATL) TE15   138 ) Jared Cook (OAK) TE16   139 ) OJ Howard (TB) TE17   140 ) Eli Manning (NYG) QB16   141 ) Andy Dalton (CIN) QB17   142 ) Matthew Stafford (DET) QB18   143 ) Carson Palmer (ARI) QB19   144 ) Matt Forte (NYJ) RB54   145 ) Branden Oliver (LAC) RB55   146 ) Kenny Britt (CLE) WR57   147 ) Cordarelle Patterson (OAK) WR58   148 ) Rex Burkhead (NE) RB56   149 ) Tarik Cohen (CHI) RB57   150 ) Nelson Agholor (PHI) WR59  

Doug Martin Fantasy Football Stock Profile: Despite a looming suspension, Martin is a major bounce back candidate for 2017

Doug Martin

Position: Running Back

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Talent: 8.5/10

At 5’9″ and over 220 pounds with 4.55 speed, Doug Martin is an absolute bruiser deserving of the nickname “Muscle Hamster.” He may absolutely hate that nickname, but it doesn’t make it any less accurate, and Martin’s bowling-ball style has suited him well since he entered the league out of Boise State in 2012. In his rookie year, he racked up over 1,400 yards and 11 TDs, earning a spot in the 2013 Pro Bowl as a result. Martin’s other breakout season came in 2015, where his totals for carries (288), yards (1,402), and touchdowns (6) trailed only his rookie season for career-highs. Clearly, Doug Martin’s problem hasn’t been overall production in the league — consistency, however, has certainly been a factor.

Take last season for example. After his All-Pro 2015 campaign, Martin was rewarded with a 5-year, $35.75 million deal heading into 2016. Expectations were high for the Muscle Hamster in 2016, hence his high placement on many fantasy draft boards. But instead, Martin started just 8 games a season ago due to a hamstring injury and late-season suspension that will carry over into 2017, and he finished the season with just 421 yards and 3 TDs. In Martin’s 2013 and 2014 seasons, he started only 17 games combined due to a multitude of injuries and ran for less than 500 yards in both seasons.

Obviously in Doug Martin’s case, the talent is certainly there — and once he can translate his skill into regular success, he’ll be a mainstay in the 1st round for years to come.

Opportunity/Usage: 8/10

If you missed my breakdown of the Fantasy Fullback Dive boys’ Buccaneers preview with Trevor Sikkema from the Pewter Report, check it out here. A few of the points from his interview are relevant here, particularly head coach Dirk Koetter’s history as an offensive-minded coach. Koetter served as offensive coordinator for the Falcons and Jaguars, as well as a season with the Bucs before taking over as Tampa Bay’s head coach last season, so he knows his way around an offensive gameplan. And he’s well aware of Martin’s talent and what it can mean for an offense — just check out the team’s numbers from 2015, when they set a franchise record for total yards in a season and ran for over 135 yards per game. So Martin’s history as the team’s feature back coupled with the fact that Tampa Bay ran the ball 453 times in 2016, good for 7th in the NFL, should mean a healthy amount of chances for Martin when he returns from suspension in Week 4.

And as far as competition goes, Martin finds himself battling only Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers for carries when he does return. Rodgers was actually the team’s top fantasy RB a season ago, barely edging out Martin due to about 140 more rushing yards on the season, but neither back has the talent or trust from Koetter to really emerge as the new lead back — especially not by Week 4. Martin should have his shot when he’s eligible to return, and he should get the ball early and often once he’s back.

Coaching Scheme: 9/10

Although Todd Monken holds the title of Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, play-calling duties are still heavily handled by Dirk Koetter. Koetter has been handed the keys to a quietly talented offensive unit in 2017, especially with the additions of guys like DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, and that talent will certainly be utilized to its fullest extent. The one way in which this could actually hurt the stock of a player like Doug Martin is that with so much talent on the roster, Dirk Koetter can get creative with his offensive gameplans. That means we certainly may see guys like Jackson in the backfield at times, and we’ll definitely see some unique formations that work to get Mike Evans or Cameron Brate open downfield.

Overall, however, Koetter’s offensive prowess will typically benefit Martin, who should see plenty of chances to produce for a team that very well could mess around and steal a playoff spot in the NFC.

Surrounding Talent: 8/10

If you’ve been reading to this point, you’ve seen the names: Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate, O.J. Howard, Jacquizz Rodgers… the talent is there. The offensive line certainly could be improved upon, currently sitting at 23rd on PFF’s offensive line rankings, which brings down this section’s score a bit. But this team also has Jameis Winston, who is currently The Wolf’s 12th-ranked QB and rising. Winston’s continued growth, combined with the team’s offseason additions should culminate in a much improved aerial attack for the Bucs in 2017, which opens up play-action and makes the lives of Martin, Rodgers, and Sims much easier.

Defense is certainly not a strength for this Tampa Bay team — they’re currently PFF’s 24th ranked defense — so their offense is going to determine whether or not this team wins games. With that in mind and the aforementioned multitude of talent that Tampa Bay’s offensive unit boasts, I see plenty of opportunity for Martin to make his mark on this season.

Risk: 5/10

And finally, here’s where Doug Martin’s stock takes a pretty substantial hit. First, the obvious — Doug Martin will begin the 2017 season by serving the remaining 3 games of his 4-game suspension for testing positive for Adderall. While his suspension stemmed directly from his positive drug test, when Martin entered a treatment facility last December he made it clear that it wasn’t just for substance abuse — he was aiming to solve a number of serious personal issues that had been plaguing him throughout his career. Obviously both he and the Buccaneers feel that the facility worked for him and prepared him to return to professional football in 2017, but the possibility of another issue is always there, and that risk looms over him heading into this season.

Injuries have also hindered Martin’s ability to stay on the field during his NFL career. He’s missed 5+ games due to injury in 3 of his first 5 professional seasons, with issues ranging from a torn labrum to a bad hamstring strain and more. He runs hard between the tackles and doesn’t boast the imposing size of many running backs of that nature, so injuries are bound to happen. But obviously for Martin to make the kind of impact he wants for the Bucs (and his fantasy owners) in 2017, his health will be a key factor.

Overall Stock Score: 38.5/50, C+

Ceiling Projection/Scenario: Martin returns Week 4 and doesn’t miss a beat, immediately regaining the starting role and locking it up for the remainder of the season. He gets overlooked by many defenses early on due to the need to worry about Tampa Bay’s surplus of offensive weapons, and by the time opposing teams figure out how to slow him down, it’s too late. He goes off for the remainder of the season, leading the Bucs and many fantasy teams into the postseason, and finally lives up to his hefty paycheck.

240 carries, 1,350 yards, 8 TDs; 35 receptions, 350 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs

Floor Projection/Scenario: Martin returns Week 4 and immediately looks out of whack, still trying to get into football shape after 3 weeks away from the team. Defenses find ways to easily penetrate Tampa Bay’s offensive line, leaving the Bucs with no choice but to abandon the run game and try to win games through the air. Martin’s injury history also resurfaces, causing him to miss some important late-season games.

150 carries, 500 yards, 3 TDs; 15 receptions, 125 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs

Bottom Line: Although he’ll miss Weeks 1-3, Martin is still the guy in Tampa Bay’s backfield. He’ll get his chance to prove his worth to this team as its lead back when he returns, and if the early trends of OTAs hold true, his production will be that of a mid-to-low tier RB1. Staying healthy and on the field will obviously be a top priority, and will be possibly the biggest indicator of Martin’s success in 2017.

The Bucs know what kind of talent they have in Doug Martin, and will work hard to utilize his skills and allow him to pace their rushing attack. However, if his inconsistency remains and he can’t stay healthy, they’ll have to look elsewhere — both this season, and in the future.

Predicted Stat Line: 220 carries, 1,200 yards, 7 TDs; 28 receptions, 275 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

We used this formula to nail David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. Check back for more Fantasy Stock Profiles throughout the off-season to stay ahead of your fantasy football league.

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