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DraftKings NFL Week 3 Picks, Sleepers and Strategies

Per usual, these follow standard Draftkings prices containing games in the Millionaire Maker (No Thur/Mon games)

Quarterbacks

  • Top Shelf
    • Tom Brady ($7,700) – Brady came out and put all the doubters who were dumb enough to think he fell of the proverbial cliff at the age of 40. With only three healthy receivers dressed for New England against the Saints, Brady carved them up like a cake. Brady and New England have had great recent success at home against Houston, who doesn’t look like they have the firepower to keep up with the Patriots.
    • Aaron Rodgers ($7,300) – The other premiere QB that seemingly can’t be stopped is Aaron Rodgers. With a $400 cushion from Brady, Rodgers offers elite production at home against a terrible looking Bengals team. If Jordy Nelson isn’t able to go, that could dampen Rodgers’ value but it’s likely to not be too much of a problem.
  • Retail Price
    • ***Derek Carr ($6,800)*** – Carr has been spectacular in 2017 as the Raiders offense has been humming. Going into a Sunday Night Football contest in Washington, he’s likely to put up solid numbers once again in the week’s highest totaled over/under game.
    • Kirk Cousins ($6,100) – On the other side of the Sunday Night matchup we have Cousins who has struggled so far through two games. You would think that a nationally televised game against a below average defense would be just what’s needed for Kirk to break out of this funk.
  • Bang For Your Buck
    • Carson Wentz ($5,900) – The Eagles just keep continue to throw the ball and Wentz is still putting up numbers with over 300 yards in back to back games. It was an impressive outing against the Chiefs that just fell short, and now the Eagles take on a wounded Giants squad that needs to be put out of it’s misery.

Running Backs

  • Top Shelf
    • Kareem Hunt ($8,000) – You cannot stop Kareem Hunt, you can only hope to contain him. Another double digit touchdown performance skyrocketed his price to $8k but Hunt isn’t slowing down in Andy Reid’s offense. He’ll get a handful of touches after Ajayi just rushed 28 times for 122 yards.
    • ***Jay Ajayi ($7,700)*** – Speaking of Ajayi, the RB gets a favorable spot against the Jets in which the Dolphins should be leading throughout the game. Ajayi was clearly the focal point of the offense and should be once again moving forward as Jay Cutler works to establish his chemistry with the offense.
  • Retail Price
    • Ty Montgomery ($6,900) – The Packers are a home favorite and figure to be in control of this game with the Bengals struggling so badly on offense. Montgomery has shown a true three down work horse role and was a large part of the team’s usage against Atlanta. His recent success has bumped his salary up over $1k.
    • Devonta Freeman ($6,700) – Freeman is in an interesting spot here where he’s coming off a solid 20+ point outing, but his price dropped a decent amount. He saw his rushing attempts increase from Week 1 while finding the end zone twice. Coleman only rushed the ball six times last game so Freeman is starting to pull away with the lead dog role in Atlanta.
    • CJ Anderson ($5,800) – Anderson TORE UP the Cowboys last week and ended all rumors of a Broncos committee approach. Another 20+ carry game as the Broncos got up early and controlled the game from there. Now traveling to Buffalo, we’ll see how much Denver leans on the run again as the Bills have stymied opposing passing games so far.
    • Mike Gillislee ($5,700) – Gillislee continues to dominate on the goal line as the Patriots short yardage back. With the team returning to New England to take on the Texans, Gillislee should find himself in the red zone often. Last year Blount rushed for 105 yards and two scores off 24 carries against the Texans.
    • Tarik Cohen ($5,600) – Cohen continued to see a big usage in the passing game for Chicago, only this time he failed to get into the end zone. The bigger piece to take away was the injury to Jordan Howard. If Howard is out, then Cohen should be in line for a big work load. Even if Howard does play, you would think they limit his touches and focus on Cohen more. Howard rushed 9 times for 7 yards last game. Puke worthy numbers.
    • Theo Riddick ($5,100) – A date with the Atlanta Falcons is usually welcomes to pass catching backs as it was for Cohen and Montgomery the past two weeks. Riddick has been the Lions pass catching back for years now, and what was noticeable in the Giants game is that Abdullah had no targets. Granted, the Lions led early and dictated the game on the ground, but against a tough team like Atlanta, Riddick and Stafford are going to have to be able to move the ball.
  • Bang For Your Buck
    • Isaiah Crowell ($4,800) – If there’s a bounce back week for Crowell, it better be this one. A porous Colts defense and team in general has been atrocious so far in 2017. Kizer and Hogan combined for 42 pass attempts last week as the Browns were playing from behind all game. Now as 3 point favorites in Indianapolis, Cleveland could look to control the tempo with Crowell and put less pressure on Kizer or whoever is starting for the Browns.
    • Chris Thompson ($4,500) – Thompson seems to have quite the nose for the end zone, as he scored two more times Sunday after the injury to Rob Kelley. Thompson has historically been used in passing downs, but he’s starting to show his versatility when given the chance. Samaje Perine didn’t look so hot with his opportunity, so if Kelley is forced to miss time then Thompson could be very useful against a questionable Raiders defense.

 

Wide Receivers

  • Top Shelf
    • Antonio Brown ($9,000) – Brown can only be held in check so often, which is what Xavier Rhoades and the Vikings defense managed to pull off Sunday. Usually the Bears have had success stopping WR1s, but Mike Evans showed that some guys are just immune to such ideas and dominated the secondary. Brown is the best receiver in the NFL, I’m not worried about this matchup at all.
    • Michael Crabtree ($7,400) – Some recency bias here, but Crabtree has proven to be every bit as valuable as Amari Cooper has been (evidenced by Crabtree’s higher salary). With Redskins corner Josh Norman likely to take on Cooper, that should leave Crabtree to run amok against the rest of the secondary while continuing to be a red zone threat in a high scoring offense.
    • Keenan Allen ($7,200) – With ten targets in back to back weeks, Keenan Allen is officially back and we/Rivers loves every minute of it. Last week, Alshon Jeffery was able to have a day against the Chiefs secondary, and with the high volume that Allen is getting so far, it’s hard to back off him despite constant price increases.
  • Retail Price
    • ***Kelvin Benjamin ($6,700)*** – As we saw once again, good things happen to offenses who take on New Orleans. A struggling Panthers team could really use a boost playing against the Saints at home, as there’s no better matchup for Benjamin. It was nice to see his targets rise back up to normal numbers against Buffalo, but it was discouraging to see him get crunched in the ribs while leaping for a ball in the end zone. Benjamin is due for a game here.
    • Davante Adams ($5,600) – With Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb banged up, Adams finds himself in a great spot for Green Bay as the lone healthy receiver. At home against the Bengals, Rodgers will do much better than Deshaun Watson, who still got DeAndre Hopkins to have a respectable outing on Thursday night. Interesting to see his salary stay the same after a big Week 2 showing versus Atlanta.
  • Bang For Your Buck
    • Jermaine Kearse ($4,600) – Kearse has stuffed Robby Anderson in his back pocket and seized the role of the Jets WR1. Kearse hauled in two touchdowns last game, and now takes on a Dolphins defense that was easily thrown on by Rivers and the Chargers.
    • Rashard Higgins ($4,000) – Higgins came out of nowhere for Cleveland after they lost Corey Coleman to a broken hand. With 11 targets, Higgins reeled in 7 catches for 95 yards which seems good enough for their WR1 role. A date against the Colts is what Cleveland needs to have more offensive production.

 

Tight Ends

  • Top Plays
    • Travis Kelce ($6,000) – Kelce bounced back for a big game against the Eagles and showed he’s the focal point of the Chiefs receiving game. Last week, the Chargers were roasted by Jarvis Landry for 13 catches mostly due to the absence of top corner Jason Verrett. The Chargers are still susceptible to the pass so Kelce could be eating once again in Week 3.
    • Zach Ertz ($5,000) – Ertz has been a target hog for the Eagles so far in 2017. The Giants boast a solid defense that could give Wentz some fits, but if there’s one thing that’s likely to happen is Ertz acting as a security blanket and Option-A if moving the chains gets tough.
  • Bargain Plays
    • Delanie Walker ($4,400) – Walker has hovered around the $4k mark and saw a slight dip in his price this week because of a matchup with Seattle. He’s been consistent with his production through two weeks, and even rushed for a touchdown in Week 2. While the Seahawks corners and safeties are likely do lock down the outside receivers, Walker could be Mariota’s best weapon or option in the passing game come Sunday.
    • ***Jack Doyle ($3,600)*** – After a dud opener, Doyle turned in a solid performance with new QB Jacoby Brissett under center. Doyle caught eight balls on eight targets and looks like a real favorite target of Brissett. A home matchup against Cleveland could be the Colts best option to have a decent amount of offensive production, and Doyle figures to be a big part of that.

Defense

  • Top Plays
    • New England Patriots ($3,800) – I know the Patriots defense hasn’t been much to write home about this season. However, they’re facing off against a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson and we all know the narrative of Belichick’s success against first year signal callers. Remember, New England throttled the Texans in this game last season.
    • Denver Broncos ($3,600) – We know how good the Broncos defense is. They absolutely stymied the Cowboys on national television and put on an impressive beat down. This game isn’t in Mile High, but Buffalo hasn’t looked like much of a high powered offense. It’s very hard to imagine Buffalo having the ability to put up a lot of points against the Broncos.
    • Green Bay Packers ($3,400) – If anyone has seen the Bengals offense over the first two weeks, you know how goddamn bad they look. They fired their offensive coordinator, as the team hasn’t scored a touchdown so far this year. Now traveling to Green Bay while trying to set up a new offense, the Bengals could make it three weeks in a row with no touchdowns.
  • Bargain Plays
    • ***Philadelphia Eagles ($3,000)*** – I like the idea of the Eagles defense at home against a Giants offense that just looks lost. The Giants just can’t move the ball and have been coughing up sacks and turnovers for the opposition at a rapid pace. Plenty of points to be had here for an Eagles team fresh off a loss and returning for their home opener.
    • Tennessee Titans ($2,700) – The Titans can be a reach play if you need it at home against Seattle. Through two games, Seattle has scored 21 points as the offense has just looked utterly bad. It only looks worse when it’s been against the Green Bay and San Francisco defenses.

Be sure to let me know how much money I won you, @theJMcGuinness.

Also, last week’s picks can be referenced here.

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