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DraftKings Week 5 Picks, Sleepers and Strategy

Per usual, these follow standard Draftkings prices containing games in the Millionaire Maker (No Thur/Sun Night/Mon games) ***BRING BACK THE SUNDAY NIGHT GAME*** ***INCLUDE THURSDAY FOR A $6K WINSTON***

Quarterbacks

  • Top Shelf
    • Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) – Rodgers has been a lock for at least 20 points every week. He gets a big matchup in Dallas Week 5 and the Cowboys defense has been sub par. It’s America’s Game of the Week so you expect Rodgers to come out and put up silly numbers. He’s expensive but worth it.
  • Retail Price
    • Dak Prescott ($6,800) – Dak’s put up 20+ in back to back weeks, and as bad as Dallas’ secondary has been the Packers’ is even worse. The over/under of 52.5 is the second highest of the week and Prescott will attempt to go stride for stride with Aaron Rodgers.
  • Bang For Your Buck
    • ***Carson Palmer ($5,900)*** – Palmer has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight. As has been the case now, the Cardinals running game is non-existent putting all the responsibility on Palmer’s arm. The Eagles secondary and corner Jalen Mills in particular has struggled immensely from the absence of Ronald Darby. A road dog situation for Palmer should result in points.
    • Jay Cutler ($5,200) – I know what you’re thinking. Cutler and the Miami offense has STUNK through their first three games. STUNK! However, a home date with the Titans could be exactly what’s needed to get Smokin Jay going. Just look at what rookie Deshaun Watson did to them last week. Cutler has the weapons at receiver to do damage against this weak defense.

Running Backs

  • Top Shelf
    • Le’Veon Bell ($9,500) – Bell delivered with the explosion we were all waiting for in Week 4 for 37.6 points. Bell should be in for another high volume game especially with how good the Jacksonville secondary has been. It will be a lot easier for the Steelers to move the ball with Bell in this game.
    • Todd Gurley ($8,000) – Gurley has been an absolute horse in Sean McVay’s offense and has been the leading point scorer at RB in 2017. Some players might shy away from using Gurley against the Seahawks, but when he’s gotten 20+ touches in every game thus far he’s safe to use at a thin position this week.
    • Leonard Fournette ($7,000) – Another game, another touchdown for Fournette as he continues his string of consistency. The Jaguars best bet to win in Pittsburgh is to control the clock and run the ball with Fournette. Despite low rushing yard totals each week, his nose for the end zone and presence in the passing game has made him very productive.
  • Retail Price
    • Carlos Hyde ($6,900) – For $100 cheaper, Hyde finds a plus matchup against a bad Colts run defense. Hyde’s also been a horse in the 49ers offense while being used in the passing game. In what should be a close game, the 49ers won’t have to worry about airing it out while giving Hyde the rock on the ground.
    • Bilal Powell ($6,200) – The sounding of the Bilal Powell horn clearly worked last week as Matt Forte was ruled out with a toe injury. Powell has shown how dominant he can be when featured in an offense, evidenced by his big rise in price. In a game against Cleveland, Powell should continue his success as the Jets primary offensive weapon.
    • ***DeMarco Murray ($5,400)*** – Murray has had a down year thus far, but QB Marcus Mariota went down with a hamstring injury versus the Texans. The team signed Brandon Weeden which doesn’t look good for Mariota’s status Sunday. Expect Murray to get the ball often with this limited passing game.
    • Alex Jones ($5,100) – Assuming Ty Montgomery can’t play, Alex Jones steps in as Green Bay’s starter. Jones was actually decent in his short stint last week and proved he can be used down on the goal line. There’s lots of points to go around in this contest and Jones can be a cheaper fill in at RB.
  • Bang For Your Buck
    • Duke Johnson ($4,900) – The Duke has taken over the reigns of Cleveland’s backfield as Crowell has proven to not be of service. The Browns have made a big effort the last two weeks to use Johnson in the passing game with 17 targets in those contests. He’s found the end zone in both games and still sits below the $5 threshold.
    • Ameer Abdullah ($4,700) – Abdullah finally seems to be settling into that workhorse role we’d hoped for during the preseason. After 20 carries and a touchdown in Week 4, Abdullah could be worked more constantly into the offense and even seemed to replace Theo Riddick in the passing game. Last week James White caught 10 balls against the Panthers showing they can be susceptible to pass catching backs.
    • Alex Collins ($4,000) – Collins has rushed exactly nine times for 82 yards in back to back games. Weird, I know. Collins was expected to shoulder a lot of touches against the Steelers, but the game flow and Joe Flacco’s shit performance really ruined Collins’ day. He did out carry Allen and West 9-2-4, but with Baltimore attempting 49 passes Allen was more involved overall. Now against a Raiders team lead by EJ Manuel, the game script could favor Collins and the Ravens running game. He’s shown that if he gets 15+ touches he can put up big numbers as long as he doesn’t fumble again and get yanked.
    • Wayne Gallman ($3,900) – After having virtually no running game for three weeks, Gallman stepped in and had himself a nice day for the Giants. Backs Paul Perkins and Orleans Darkwa are slightly banged up which could leave the backfield to Gallman. The Chargers have two excellent corners on the outside, so while throwing the ball might not come easy for Eli, the offense could put the ball in Gallman’s hands more than expected.

Wide Receivers

  • Top Shelf
    • Jordy Nelson ($8,100) – Similar to Rodgers, Jordy has been a rock every week minus the injury in Week 3 that knocked him out early. With Davante Adams still in the concussion protocol and Ty Montgomery iffy for Sunday, Rodgers weapons are depleting. Just means more targets for Jordy to continue to dominate with.
  • Retail Price
    • Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) – Fitz had a slow day until his OT touchdown winner gave him decent numbers on the day. While the Cardinals offense struggled as a whole on the day, Larry must be looking forward to abusing Jalen Mills and the Eagles corners similar to what Keenan Allen and the Chargers did last week.
    • Devante Parker ($6,600) – As we mentioned this could be a big week for Cutler, it would mean a big week for Parker would follow suit. Parker is the guy that’s going to get the touchdowns and the long gains in Miami’s offense over Jarvis Landry. If you take the risk and go with Cutler at QB, you have to stack him with Parker at receiver.
    • ***Dez Bryant ($6,500)*** – My favorite play of the week is Dez Bryant. His price has dropped considerably for his talent as he’s “under performed”. However, Dez has gone up against Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib/Chris Harris, Patrick Peterson and then the Rams so far in 2017. Three teams boasting elite, shut down corners that limit what Dez can do. Now he gets a cupcake Packers secondary with more holes in it than my dad’s socks. Dez is a smash play here in a likely shootout
    • TY Hilton ($6,000) – While the Cardinals and Fitzgerald unable to take the top off the 49ers defense, Hilton and his speed could be more successful in doing so. He performed well against the poor Browns team, and of Brissett is going to move the chains against San Francisco it’s likely to be through the use of Hilton.
  • Bang For Your Buck
    • Jaron Brown ($4,500) – Brown has had played on majority of the teams snaps which is encouraging for the outside receiver. Teammates John Brown and JJ Nelson haven’t shown the ability to stay on the field for long periods of time, so Fitz and Jaron Brown have seen a lot of production in the offense. We’ve detailed the Eagles’ struggles in the secondary so Brown can be a flexible play if you need to spend down.
    • Trent Taylor ($3,400) / Aldrick Robinson ($3,100) – If you’re looking for a home run shot at the receiver spot check out the receivers in San Francisco. Facing the Colts, Indianapolis has been one of the weaker pass defenses and has been susceptible to big plays. Normal outside receiver Marquise Goodwin is still in the concussion protocol, so either Robinson (12 targets last week) or slot guy Taylor (10 targets) could have double digit point upside at an extremely cheap price.

Tight Ends

  • Top Plays
    • Zach Ertz ($6,200) – Mr Consistency at the TE position. Ertz has become matchup proof and dependable while paying for what you get in the Eagles offense. At least 8 targets in every game, Ertz will continue to be a solid play week in and week out. With no Gronkowski or Kelce on the slate, Ertz is the top dog.
  • Bargain Plays
    • Charles Clay ($4,800) – Clay has become the go to target for Tyrod Taylor in the Bills offense. Double digit scores in three of four, Clay has proven to be a very reliable TE option. With the Bengals defense being above average, Taylor could be forced to check down to Clay more often.
    • Jared Cook ($3,900) – Cook really saw his usage spike when Derek Carr was removed from the game and EJ Manuel came in. Manuel gave him a few end zone looks which is a very encouraging sign for Cook who could be a cheap home run play in what’s going to be a struggling offense. Baltimore has done a good job with opposing receivers so Cook could be the Raiders hidden gem.
    • ***Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500)*** – The Browns defense has been unbelievably bad against tight ends for years now. It was a common theme to pick on them in 2016 and it is once again in 2017. Just look what the guy below did last week 6-68-2 is one hell of a day for a backup tight end. I like ASJ to break out here.

Defense

  • Top Plays
    • Detroit Lions ($3,200) – The Lions have proven to be a very good defense so far in 2017. It also helps that they’ve scored touchdowns in all but one game so far. Detroit is at home this week, and their defense will be much better than the Patriots whom the Panthers easily torched. New England makes everyone’s offense look good, so don’t be scared by Carolina.
  • Bargain Plays
    • Baltimore Ravens ($2,900) – The Ravens had a great start to the year until being dismantled by the London Jaguars. Now they get to face EJ Manuel leading a struggling Raiders offense that was having problems even before Carr got hurt. Oakland is running on fumes right now which is a great time for Baltimore to pounce.
    • ***Buffalo Bills ($2,600)*** – I don’t know how the Bills can be priced so low this week. Sure they are on the road in Cincinnati but they just went into Atlanta and won while holding MVP Matt Ryan and the offense to 17 points. Buffalo’s secondary in particular has been amazing. A very low over/under total of 38.5 has me all aboard the Bills defense.

Be sure to let me know how much money I won you, @theJMcGuinness.

Also, last week’s picks can be referenced here.

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