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Fantasy Football Strategy: Buy Low, Sell High Week 6

Hi everybody, welcome back to Buy Low, Sell High for Week 6 of the fantasy season. “If I could turn back time” is more than just a crappy pop song from the 80’s (which I included here for your listening pleasure of course) – it’s the feeling every fantasy football owner gets at some point in the season (maybe even weekly). Think about it, if you could actually turn back time, the first thing most of you would do is go back in time and win the lottery or invest in Apple or something related to money (I know I would). Maybe some of you are lonely and would go back and try harder with an ex-girlfriend or something of that nature. Go a little further down the list, however, and I’d bet many of you would go back and draft your fantasy team differently or even go back weekly and start the scrubs you “know” will go off like Ed Dickson this past week. Bottom line, I’ll bet at least a good portion of you would rate fixing your fantasy team in the top 10 of reasons to go back in time. Don’t feel bad, it may sound stupid to value fantasy so highly but it’s natural. Your fantasy team is an extension of you. It’s not uncommon to spend 7 hours hating fantasy football on Sunday only to regain your love of it when your last minute TD catch happens on Sunday Night Football to win you a week you thought you’d lost. Or just flat out hating it because that last minute TD never comes.

As someone who had Charles Clay, DeVante Parker and Brandon Marshall all in one lineup this week (and of course on DraftKings as well), I am very familiar with the frustrations of fantasy. Can my guys at least ever wait until the fourth quarter to get hurt instead of being carted off 5 minutes into the damn game? Either way, the best way to spark your love for the game is to create satisfying trades and that’s what we’re going to look to do right now!

For audio-based listeners, listen to our Week 6 preview

Players to Sell

I know I supported acquiring Isaiah Crowell for a number of weeks in the early going but sometimes we just have to admit when we’re wrong and move on. I don’t necessary think that Crowell is completely done but it’s clear that the Browns are just so bad that they’ll really never be in a position to utilize Crowell the way we expected before the season. Duke Johnson has also forced the issue by consistently being good all season. Crowell finally had over 50 yards so maybe this is the week you can get something for him (and by something, I mean a 4th receiver, maybe).

I advocated selling Cam Newton last week because he finally had a good game. Now that he’s repeated the feat two weeks in a row, you may actually get a buyer who believes we’re seeing old Cam Newton again. Let’s be honest, Cam only ever had value because he ran.. a lot. Now Cam doesn’t run and while he seems to be adjusting fairly well to his new life as an actual passer, the upside top 5 QB possibilities for him are out the window without the running game. Still, we’ve had enough injury and ineffectiveness at QB this year that maybe you can find a buyer. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is just not a running back. He’s essentially a slot wide receiver with limited TD upside. If you have McCaffrey in a ppr league, then you’re fine running him out there. If you have him in a standard league, however, I’d test the market and see if there are any other owners who are still hyped about him.

The ageless wonder Frank Gore is coming off of another solid performance but clearly Marlon Mack is involved and is the future at the position for Indy. I don’t anticipate Gore disappearing but by playoff time Mack is probably going to be the back to own here. There are a lot of RB needy teams out there and if Gore is just sitting around on your bench, play up his consistent 80 yards a game this year and see if you can steal a low end WR2 for him.

I still love Leonard Fournette, just keep in mind that the rookie wall for RB usually hits around week 9 or 10. Fournette has gotten a ton of volume and he’s no stranger to injury. I don’t expect an epic collapse but I do think he’ll likely perform below his current level once playoffs roll around. If you can get a similarly top level talent for Fournette now after his huge week that is more proven and has a fluffy playoff schedule, it may be worth considering. This isn’t a player to sell low on or a must sell player by any means, strictly a player worth selling if you can get the top end in return.

It may be time to sell Ezekiel Elliott if you can find a willing participant who will pay a late first round price for him. Elliott still has a pending appeal review which could be decided at any time. While I think Elliott is likely to win against the NFL’s appeal and play for the remainder of the season, it still isn’t a guarantee. This sell isn’t as much about the appeal though as it is about the O line in Dallas. They just aren’t quite the same unit that they were last year anymore. Zeke has been having good performances but not quite as great as last year, especially in the red zone. Where it used to be a no brainer to run it in with Zeke within the 5 yard line – Dallas is mixing it up much more. This week alone there were 3 opportunities for Zeke from within the 5 and they threw to Cole Beasley twice with a Dak Prescott run on the third opportunity. Zeke is still good but he isn’t quite the machine he was last year and he comes with the risk of the appeal. If you can get good value in return, it may be worth it to make all of this someone else’s problem.

While I mentioned him briefly last week, Deshaun Watson bears mentioning again. He now has 15 TD in the past three weeks. Most QB would die for that many TD over half the season. Clearly Watson is good. Also clearly, this can’t continue. Watson is still a good bet to put up solid QB1 numbers for the remainder of the season, but he’s also a rookie and the league will adjust. Additionally he’s playing at a pace that’s impossible to maintain for anybody. If somebody is willing to pay you like they’re trading for Tom Brady or Drew Brees then by all means, ship Watson off. Otherwise, just ride it out.

Players to Buy

For anybody who watched the game, Jameis Winston made a few overthrows and didn’t seem to have his best stuff. He still threw for over 300 yards but fell a bit short on the TD front. I still think Winston is a good bet for big numbers over the course of the season and I’d try to acquire him now while his stock is a bit low. Especially important is the fact that he essentially had his bye in week 1 so you don’t have to worry about carrying a backup QB with Winston at the helm.

Golden Tate occasionally has his struggles but every year he seems to end up with his high reception totals and consistent production. Tate has been up and down this year and since we’re coming off of a down week, it seems like a fine time to throw out an offer in case his owner wasn’t expecting the volatility. This is for ppr only – standard leagues shouldn’t bother.

So clearly the Miami Dolphins just suck this year. That being said, sucky teams generally have to have a go to WR for when they’re down and need to catch up. That receiver has been Devante Parker this year and he’s done a good job of looking like Allen Robinson from a few years ago (minus the TD output). Parker screwed his owners this week with an injured ankle in the first quarter and, as such, the owner may be worried about his ankle. I know it’s a little bold to trade for a WR with an ankle injury who plays for a shit team, but sometimes bold moves can pay off big. My understanding of Parker’s injury is that he was running sprints on the sidelines trying to get back in the game but the coaching staff wouldn’t let him. I’m confident that the injury is minor and I still think Parker can be a value top end WR2 for the rest of the season.

With Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall both done for the year, Sterling Shepard stands to get more volume than before because Eli Manning has to throw somewhere and the 0-5 Giants suck so bad that they’ll have to continue throwing a ton. However, Shepard also injured his own ankle this week and as of this moment I don’t know how badly he’s hurt. He could be a game changer if healthy though as the only real target left in New York. I suppose Evan Engram also may be worth a bench player if you’re in need of a tight end as well.

I’m buying Doug Baldwin here coming off of two rough games. The guy never misses a game and it’s been the running narrative for Seattle over the past few years to start off slow then blow up offensively over the second half of the year. From a talent perspective and efficiency rating, Baldwin is borderline elite, he just needs volume. Expect more targets to go Baldwin’s way over the second half of the season and hopefully you can get him on the cheap for owners who are done relying on Seattle.

Once again Amari Cooper was absolutely terrible. Even if he isn’t the top end stud many thought he would be, he isn’t this bad either. Cooper will rebound and he’s capable of great outings. Derek Carr is expected back this week also. If you can give up a WR2 or less for Cooper, go for it!

Trade Analysis

As usual I’ve got a couple of trades to share with you from this past week on my teams:

Rob Gronkowski and Kenny Britt for Zach Ertz and Doug Baldwin

It should be noted that this is a 12 team PPR league. I love Gronkowski but Ertz is looking like a legitimate top 3 tight end this year and in a PPR environment he’s probably a lot closer to Gronk in value than it would initially seem. Also, as I advocated for earlier – I think Doug Baldwin is going to have a solid second half and he’s capable of producing as a top 10 wide receiver. Gronk getting hurt two days after I made the deal helps me feel good about it as well.

Kelvin Benjamin and Frank Gore for Doug Baldwin and Charles Clay

I like Benjamin but I like Doug Baldwin more. Frank Gore was just sitting around on my bench and I needed a one week replacement for Rob Gronkowski at tight end with no options on the wire. Obviously Charles Clay getting hurt in the one week I intended to use him was not overly helpful but at the time I felt good about the move.

Latavius Murray and Adam Thielen for Demaryius Thomas

I think Latavius Murray will be okay as the new lead back in Minnesota but I don’t expect wonders from him. I also do like Thielen but I love Demaryius. Additionally, I wanted to open up a spot on my roster to add Eddie Lacy (yeah I know, great call there). Bottom line, I think I got the best player in the trade and really, sometimes that’s all that matters.

That’s all for this week! Don’t be afraid to hit up the Odell Beckham owner as many times the owner who loses a big asset panics and is willing to trade off their next best player for two lesser players to fill the newly opened void. You want to get them first before somebody else in the league is able to go in for the kill. As always, holler at me in the comments below!

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