Coaching History

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Early Successes, Recent Failures

Turner has as extensive of a playcalling history as anyone still in the league, beginning in 1991 with the Dallas Cowboys. Alongside the legendary Jimmy Johnson, Turner oversaw a massively explosive attack that generated monster outputs from Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, and ultimately won two Super Bowls.

This success earned Turner a head coaching gig with the Redskins, where he generated some monster RB1 (Terry Allen, Stephen Davis) and WR1 (Henry Ellard, Michael Westbrook) seasons over a six year run. This included a 1999 season where his team ranked 2nd in both yardage and points generated; however, Turner's teams' records rarely matched the heroic individual stats, and thus he was let go in 2000.

Over the next six seasons (2001 - 06), Turner continued play calling in a variety of spots, bouncing from San Diego, to Miami, to Oakland, and finally San Francisco. Just like in Washington, some absolute monster fantasy seasons were generated (especially in the backfield), including masterpieces from LaDanian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, and Lamont Jordan, while WRs Chris Chambers and Randy Moss produced some dominant WR1 stats.

Consequently, the Chargers came calling for their head coaching vacancy, where Turner's forged his legacy during a six season stretch as head coach. Turner consistently crafted some offensive juggernauts that could never ultimately get the job done in the playoffs. Still, he helped LaDanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates cement their legendary careers, while also creating monsters in Vincent Jackson and even Malcolm Floyd.

Ultimately, the lack of playoff success was Turner's demise. Since San Diego, he facilitated a league-leading 1,646 yard season out of Josh Gordon as Cleveland's offensive coordinator, while also helping Adrian Peterson earn a rushing crown in 2015.

Indeed, Turner has coaxed out some massive individual efforts, and crafted some highly impressive overall attacks. Over these 26 years calling plays, his teams have ranked in the top 10 of points 10 times, while finishing in the top 10 in total yardage in eight instances. He's also found himself inside the bottom-10 for these respective categories only five times.

Unfortunately, most of these lowly finishes have come in the last five seasons. In fact, none of Turner's last five offenses have cracked the top-15 in yards or points. In his defense, all of these squads have lacked any semblance of firepower, and Turner was able to squeeze the absolute most out of a puke-worthy Cleveland QB Committee of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, and Brian Hoyer.

In Carolina, he'll be equipped with the most offensive firepower he's had since the Tomlinson, Gates, and VJax eras in San Diego. More importantly, many of these pieces fit his scheme / system like a glove:

With many offenses switching to a "West Coast" backbone, Turner's "Air Coryell" attack will be a refreshing breath of air.

The Air Coryell was coined after the infamous Don Coryell's relentless vertical attack. The offense is predicated upon stretching the defense to its limits in the passing game, while softening the front-seven and establishing the play action with a bruising power run game. In general, the offense isn't so much dependent on high percentage plays as it is gaining massive chunks at a time. Oftentimes, this requires wide receivers winning one-on-one jump ball deep routes.

As such, Turner has historically LOVED taller wide receivers that bring speed with their size. 6'2" Michael Irving, 6'5" Vincent Jackson, and 6'3" Josh Gordon all feasted down the field in this scheme. His offense has clicked most with an athletic tight end capable of stretching seams, with Antonio Gates revolutionizing the position under Turner, and even Jordan Cameron proving dominant.

In the running game, Turner's offense is at it's best with a versatile workhorse who can punish the defense up the gut and rip off finesse screens in equal measure (think LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith); however, he also often incorporates a satellite back (i.e. Darren Sproles) regardless of his lead back.  With the defense constantly stressed with the deep ball, the power run game and screens are opened. In a deadly cycle for defenses, if they choose to shut down the run game and stack the box, they'll be peppered relentlessly down the field.... and if they put the safeties deep, they'll be steamrolled. 

Chudzinski summarized all these tendencies when explaining why Turner was his clear-cut top choice and a perfect philosophical match, stating, "It matches with the philosophy that I've grown up in," Rivera said. "You run the football, you're physical as a running team, but then you take your shots with hard play action. It's OK to throw the ball downfield and see how things unfold."

Former Turner-QB Sage Rosenfels emphasized the attacking, vertical nature of his offense, stating, “Norv’s core belief is he would like to push the ball downfield. I don’t think Norv is trying to set a record for 75 percent completion percentage. He also doesn’t want it to be a 50 percent completion percentage. He thinks you have to attack a defense and put a defense on its heels by pushing the envelope down the field.”

Beyond just the plays and schematics, one area Turner thrives is simplification -- something that'll be crucial for Cam Newton:

“I remember early conversations where it was, ‘I don’t know. Look out there. The guy’s open. Just throw the ball,” Rivers told Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback.

“People make it way too complicated. There are some common-sense elements to it,” Turner said in the same video. “There are progressions, but sometimes common sense overrides the progressions.”

“He’s coached all different types of quarterbacks. He’s made a ton of successful quarterbacks,” Chudzinski said. “He just has a way of taking things that are complex and simplifying them and making the game easy. Letting guys go out and play, not be robots and let them do what they do best.”

With a relentless yet simple offense that attacks down the field, the Panthers could return to their dominant 2015 form.

The Panthers don't have a wideout in the typical "Norv Turner" (re: 6'3, blazing speed) build. Indeed, current No.1 Devin Funchess has the size at 6'4", but he's far from a burner and best fitted for a complementary role.  He'll do some intermediate damage, but the Panthers need someone with more speed alongside the size to truly execute this scheme. Meanwhile, DJ Moore, Torrey Smith, and Curtis Samuel definitely all have the jets, which they've apparently flashed all OTAs...but none stand above 6'. 

Thus, discerning who'll emerge from this congested pack is difficult. Funchess would appear to have the early edge as the veteran incumbent, but again, he's a poor fit in Turner's vertical-based scheme. Instead Moore, the first WR selected in 2018, is my early favorite. His 6' frame is thick and powerful, yet still blazes at 4.42 speed.

Moreover, the Panthers passed on the longer, faster Calvin Ridley because they were so enamored with Moore, and he's turned plenty of heads thus far: "The first-round pick has shown strong hands, seemingly snagging everything that’s come his way since rookie minicamp, including a number of catches in traffic." Additionally, the team has already removed the training wheels, as team analyst Bryan Strickland noted, "They’re taking it slow with those guys (rookies during OTAs) but the one rookie that was really active was D.J. Moore... He looked like he belonged out there."

Still, Moore's only a rookie. With Turner's tendencies targeting TEs and RBs, it'd be a long shot to expect him or any other WR to lead this team in catches, yardage, or scores. He's still worth a stab at his Penny Stock price (130 ADP), as the natural ability and opportunity to emerge are both very real.

Fresh off three straight 1,000+ seasons, Olsen had his 2018 cut tragically short due to a foot injury. Turner's presence should inspire hope for an immediate 1,000 yard rebound, however. Even at less than 100%, Olsen still flashed his long speed and silky route running down last season's stretch, and his injury did not require any surgery. Olsen was always used by Shula down the seams, but where Turner may really bring him to life is in the red zone. Expect Olsen to split out wide plenty when inside the 20, where he can bully smaller corners with his 6'5" frame and excellent hands. Even at 33 and in year 12, Olsen should threaten his career high 8 TDs from way back in 2009.

Workhorse Warrior

Run Game Impact 

McCaffrey set a tough receiving bar to top in 2017, leading the league in RB targets with 113, finishing third in receptions (80) and fifth in yardage (651). Still, meeting those targets, and perhaps exceeding the yardage, is a surprisingly realistic 2018 outcome. Tomlinson, who understands how Turner deploys his backs more than anyone, thinks McCaffrey will find even more space and success as a sophomore -- especially as a runner:

"We all know the glaring thing that Christian excels at, and that’s coming out of the backfield and catching the ball. That’s a given, and Norv will create those matchups for him in a way that he’s never seen before. That will be really good, but the thing I’m excited about seeing is how Norv is going to use him in the run game. Norv is going to get him on the perimeter. He’s going to call the things that Christian does well – getting him on the edge, getting him in space. So you’ll see a lot of those toss plays, you will see the misdirection plays...To me, Christian will be the guy, the premier player in that offense."

HC Ron Rivera is similarly projected an uptick in rushing usage, who laughed when asked if McCaffrey could see 200 carries after only 117 in his rookie season:

"Everybody forgets when he was in college he ran between the tackles more than anybody and he touched the ball more than anybody," Rivera said. "So I don't see why not."

Rivera's alluding to the 337 carries and 2,019 rushing yards (+45 catches) McCaffrey racked up his senior year. Meanwhile, Turner's lead back has 200+ carries in 17 of 23 seasons he was the full-time play-caller, and nine seasons of 300+. Injuries were almost always responsible for the 26% of times his lead rusher failed to hit those totals. The similarly-sized and styled LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 276 carries under Turner, including a 339 carry, 59 catch rookie masterpiece in 2001. Workhorse upside is possible for the jacked-up McCaffrey.

Still, the sophomore back will never be confused for a "bruiser." While he has underrated strength and can knife through defenses up the gut, he won't soften them the way Turner likes to do with a physical runner.

Enter CJ Anderson. 

A perfect complement to McCaffrey, Anderson is a North-South bowling ball who can bruise and slash with equal aptitude. Even at only 5'8", Anderson's a Maurice Jones-Drew clone at a sturdy 225 lbs, with excellent balance and powerful leg drive that never stops until he's truly down. His style thoroughly contrasts McCaffrey, and, as a souped-up Jonathan Stewart, Anderson could easily lead this team in carries despite all the "McCaffrey Workload" buzz.

In fact, Anderson's combination of power, sneaky receiving ability, and league-leading pass-blocking ability almost perfectly mirror a "souped up" Tolbert skillset, with added elusiveness and speed. As a refresher, Tolbert logged back-to-back 900+ total yard, 10+ TD seasons under Turner from 2010-11. As a far superior talent, Anderson would have no trouble topping 1,000 total yards and 10 TDs if deployed similarly. In fact, Anderson called his first ever 1,000-yard 2017 "just a start," and purposely signed a 1-year deal to prove he was a steal. He should see every opportunity to back this up despite McCaffrey's presence; expect the pair to take the field at the same time in countless formations, just like Darren Sproles did alongside LT for so many years in San Diego.

Thus, when evaluating McCaffrey and Anderson for fantasy purposes, the clear value falls with the former Bronco. McCaffrey's currently going at No.19 overall and RB13 -- above three-down backs like Jerick McKinnon or Joe Mixon, or target hogs like Davante Adams or AJ Green. Meanwhile, Anderson falls to 93 overall and RB38, despite a real chance at a similar-sized workload that includes the ever-valuable GL touches. Don't be shocked when these two finish with similar fantasy totals, despite nearly 7 rounds difference in price, making McCaffrey an unfortunate avoid and Anderson an "unsexy" target of mine. 

Ultimately, expect McCaffrey to thrive as a receiver, while either Stewart or (ideally) a power back racks up carries to establish the power run game. Newton's prowess at the goalline will always lower the TD ceiling of the lead back, regardless of who this may be.

While some call Turner a retread, uninspiring hire, I absolutely love how his scheme meshes with the Panthers' current roster. First and absolutely foremost is Cam Newton, who could absolutely thrive in Turner's vertical-based "Air Coryell" attack. Sure, Newton will need to improve his precision in timing, footwork, and other pocket-passing habits to truly thrive. Yet, his rocket-arm, ability to extend plans, and love for the big play are a perfect fit for Turner's downfield attack. Moreover, the coach has no plans to rein in Newton's rushing, and the signal caller will benefit from Turner's ability to simplify the complex and allow his players to "just ball." An absolute monster could be brewing here.

While Newton ascends, the value of his surrounding pieces is tough to discern. Christian McCaffrey is the highest drafted Panther, going at 19 overall in current mocks. Though his skillset is dangerous, and he'll remain among the highest used backs in the receiving game, McCaffrey's unlikely to match the workhorse volume his price assumes. Instead, CJ Anderson, who's likely to see similar volume and rack up GL touches, is the far more appealing backfield piece priced seven rounds later (93 overall, RB38). Anderson's a souped up Mike Tolbert, and should have no trouble approaching the dough-boys lofty 900+ total yards and 10+ TD outputs under Turner.

On the pass-catching front, Greg Olsen seems likely to lead the team in yardage and scores if he remains healthy. Turner has a rich history of stretching seams and terrorizing red zones with his tight ends, and Olsen still flashed juice during last season's stretch run. Expect him to reintroduce himself to the firm TE1s in 2018.

Likely behind McCaffrey and Olsen on the target totem pole, this congested pack of WRs remain tricky to discern or rely on. Currently, DJ Moore -- 2018's top-selected rookie WR -- offers the most "upside-stab" appeal at 130 overall. He's a complete blazer, and while his 6' frame is slightly under the typical "6'4" Turner Tree" out wide, Moore's thick, strong, and can outmuscle defenders for the contested catch in traffic. Devin Funchess may have the size, but Turner's scheme is all about stretching the defense, and Funchess' sluggish speed seems ill-fitting here. Tracking camp usage and seeing if a favorite emerges will be crucial, however, as Turner has a rich history of 1,000+ yard wideouts.

All-in-all, Turner has plenty of tools to turn around his recent lack of success (bottom 15 in yards and points for his past five years), and return to his days of dominant offenses. If Newton takes to his coaching, everything could mesh perfectly and approach the Panthers' dominant 2015 offense.