Saquon Barkley
2018 Fantasy Stock Profile

Overall Rank:

#5

Positional Rank:

RB4

Fantasy Stock Score:

95, A

Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent

29/30

Usage

25/25

Surrounding Talent

13/15

Coaching Scheme

10/10

Risk

8/10

Upside

10/10

Saquon Barkley landed in the ideal spot for his fantasy football value with the New York Giants. His Talent is generational. Pat Shurmur is a bellcow breeder. This offense drips in explosive potential thanks to high-end receiving weaponry, yet is ready to transition to a run-first attack under an aging Eli Manning. All-in-all, the fantasy stars have aligned for a Top Five overall season for Barkley.


Ceiling Projection: 350 touches (80 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 15 TDs


Floor Projection*: 280 touches (55 rec.), 1400 Tot. Yds, 8 TDs

​

*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games

Combine Results

Height: 6'0"

Weight: 233 lbs

40 YD Dash

4.4 seconds

Vertical Jump

41.0 Inches

Broad Jump

N/A

Bench Press

29

60 YD Shuttle

N/A

20 YD Shuttlee

4.24 seconds

3 Cone Drill

N/A

​​Talent​​
29/30

POSITIVES

  • The "Generational" Label is thrown out far too often, but with Barkley it's fully warranted. 
  • He's not unfairly called a "Bigger Barry Sanders" by many experts due to his rare combination of elite elusiveness and breakaway speed, on a powerful, sturdy, and shredded 230+ lbs frame that can push the pile and gets the tough yards up the gut.  
  • Backs don't get much more complete than Barkley, who's versatility is legitimately on par with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson thanks to butter-smooth route running and silky soft hands. He's incredibly dangerous with the ball in space, weaving through defenses with incredible open field vision.
  • According to Giants GM David Gettleman, Barkley was his highest graded prospect ever outside of Peyton Manning. Some "light praise" from the GM includes: "Touchdown maker," "Unanimous best player in the draft," Haven't seen a guy like this in a long time...for 30-plus years," and, of course the ever important, "He was touched by the hand of God, frankly."
  • Bloodhound nose for the end zone.

Negatives

  • Most glaringly, we need to see the college skillset translate to the speed of the NFL -- occasionally, monstrous college talents simply don't make the leap.
  • Barkley may chase the homerun just a little too often, as he led college RBs in percentage of runs to gain negative yardage. However, in his defense, his line was God awful (hit behind line of scrimmage on 30% of runs), and he was the only weapon of note in the entire offense.

​Usage​​​​
25/25

POSITIVES

  • Simply put: HC Pat Shurmur is a bellcow breeder; truly, no one can squeeze more juice from a versatile back. 
  • From Steven Jackson, to LeSean McCoy, to what Dalvin Cook was becoming (and even *gag* Trent Richardson), Shurmur has ridden a three-down workhorse whenever able.
  • According to PFF’s Scott Barrett, Shurmur’s RB1s have averaged 308.7 carries per season (83.9% of team’s share) + 61.3 targets — insane overall volume, especially in a committee-plagued era.
  • The Bellcow Enthusiast might have his most versatile threat yet, and Barkley should push for Bell and Gurley's "Fantasy Cheat Code" volume.

Negatives

  • Did you read the positives? Move along. 

​Surrounding Talent
13/15

POSITIVES

  • The surrounding offensive situation may be perfect. Behind an aging Eli Manning, the Giants are ready to hand the offensive reigns over to a 25+ weekly carry bellcow
  • Prior to the draft, Todd McShay noted as much, stating: “I’ve heard very strongly that there are important people in the building who believe in Saquon Barkley and being a physical, run-first team. Barkley can be the face of the team for the next 10 years.”
  • Yet, Manning still has enough juice to keep this offense and the explosive Surrounding Talent churning. The Giants have an insane stable of receiving weapons, obviously highlighted by Odell Beckham Jr., and rounded out by blossoming freaks Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard.
  • This unit should move the ball with ease, creating consistently long and sustained drives, in addition to plenty of scoring opportunities.
  • Boxes can’t be stuffed, and Barkley should find oodles of space underneath to flourish in the receiving game.
  • The perfect blend of enough surrounding talent to keep defenses honest, yet not too much to jeopardize Barkley's usage

Negatives

  • The Giants line is mediocre, ranking 26th of 32 NFL Teams in last season's PFF grades. Still,  Nate Solder has been a mauling run blocker in his career, while rookie guard Will Hernandez (selected 34th overall) is a mammoth who can move and has a viscious mean streak. addition should certainly help.

​Coaching Scheme
10/10

POSITIVES

  • After coaching for a decade under Andy Reid, including seven seasons as the QBs Coach, Shurmur is an apple that doesn't fall far from his "West Coast" tree
  •  Thus, he's rooted in a system that features high-percentage, quick strike routes and concepts. Yet, Shurmur also absorbed plenty of run-game creativity from Chip Kelly while serving as his OC  in Philadelphia.
  • In general, Shurmur's offense unfurls from the backfield outwards with a far more run-heavy approach than the coaches who have groomed him -- all great news for Barkley
  • We've already emphasized Shurmur's love for a true "Bellcow" but as a reminder: Shurmur’s RB1s have averaged 308.7 carries per season (83.9% of team’s share) + 61.3 targets.
  • The Vikings ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2017, and their 53:47 pass-to-run ratio was the fourth lowest in the league.
  • This, despite running three-wide receiver sets 56% of the time, suggests Shurmur likes spreading teams but still pounding the rock. Again, this will be the ideal type of scheme for Barkley. 

Negatives

  • Outside of Chip Kelly's shadow, Shurmur has never independently cracked the top 10 in team points or yardage as a playcaller. Granted, he's been dealt some awful offensive hands in previous stints in STL and CLE, and Shurmur also has mutilple Top-10 Rushing TD seasons in five of 10 attacks. Still, the lack of past whole-team offensive success could be considered worrisome. 

​Risk​​
8/10
*Note - the higher the score, the safer the pick

Summary

  • Really, the minimal risk with Barkley is "the unknown," as we haven't seen him on an NFL field yet. Many dominant collegiate players have struggled adjusting to the faster pace and harder hits of the professional level, and there's a chance this happens to Saquon.
  • Still, he feels near-guaranteed to translate. At minimum, Barkley's receiving skills are elite, which will prevent him from being "game-flow" dependent -- the Penn State will be in on all downs and distances. With such heavy volume coming his way in this versatile role, Barkley should be consistently racking up double digit FPs, with some true explosions mixed in. Besides the unknown, the only other risk comes with his blessing: a high-volume RB absorbs countless hits. This does increase his chances of getting hurt, but Barkley is built well for the punishment.
  • Even for a rookie that'll get hit a ton, the risk feels minimal.

​Upside​​
10/10

Summary

  • Barkley's insane combination of Talent and Usage, within what projects to be a high-scoring offense, gives him a very real shot at becoming the next Le'Veon Bell or Todd Gurley. 
  • This means week-winning, 30+ point upside, alongside a sturdy 12-15 weekly FP floor. There's simply no higher-upside fantasy product than a talented three-down workhorse in a strong offense.

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