Tier Two – Locked in RB1s
4. DeMarco Murray (TEN) ↗?(Previously RB5)
Stock Up Update: Though the massive presence of freight train Derrick Henry looms large, coach Mike Mularkey has emphatically confirmed the lead Exotic Mouth Smashing role belongs to Murray:
Mike Mularkey on Derrick Henry: He's an important part of our offense but right now DeMarco Murray is the guy.
— Terry McCormick (@terrymc13) February 23, 2017
Mularkey on @Titans RBs: "I've said it before: @DeMarcoMurray is our No.1 back. He is our workhorse."@Titans
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) March 28, 2017
While this situation, with it’s creative, run-heavy ways and a top-three line to pave the way, was already a fantasy goldmine, Mularkey also suggested more receiving work could be coming Murray’s way:
“I’d say we’ve got to get our backs out quicker,” Mularkey said in a recent interview with The Midday 180 in Nashville. “We’ve been pretty adamant about protections… And we may have over-emphasized it too much that the backs are waiting for something to happen and trying to get an extra chip. But we’ve got to get them out quicker. That’s what you see these teams, especially New England, getting the ball out and letting these guys make the yards after the catch rather than in the air.”
Keep in mind, Murray ranked sixth-most in the NFL with 53 catches on a ninth-most 67 targets. Should those numbers boost, as Mularkey suggests is a real possibility, Murray’s ceiling may approach the above tier… for as long as he lasts. While he shockingly maintained health last year, Murray’s historically quite injury prone, and handcuffing him with Henry The Steamroller is a must.
Previous Assessment: While Murray plays, you’ve got an RB1. When he gets hurt, you’ve got a potentially upgraded RB1… assuming you handcuff with the steamrolling monster named Derrick Henry (next David Johnson upside only slightly hyperbolic now). The first and eighth round prices are well worth season’s admission to Exotic Smashmouth. For the record, I still believe Henry is going to take over the league at some point, but DeMarco was revived running in a scheme that fit his strengths and behind a young, rising line that trails maybe only Dallas and Oakland.
5. LeSean McCoy (BUF)
Update: Some experts are pinning Shady a misfit in new coordinator Rick Dennison’s one-cut zone scheme, which is baffling given McCoy’s incredible vision and agility. Additionally, coach Sean McDermott made it clear this offense will remain predicated on the run, stating:
“So you start with the run game, and that’s a big part of who we’re going to be on offense,” the coach said. “You’ve got to be able to run the football when the defense knows it” is coming, “and that’s big. When they feel like they know you’re going to run the football, you’ve got to be able to run it to win games at the end of the game or to open up games.
With this staff intent on maximizing quarterback Tyrod Taylor‘s legs, Shady could benefit from gaping cutback lanes (ala Alfred Morris’ rookie season with Robert Griffin III). Ultimately, scheme and volume shouldn’t be concerns for Shady investors, it’s more…
Previous Assessment: Owned Shady in five of five leagues last year, and he carried me. Love the guy on a personal level now.
Facts are facts though, Shady:
- Lost Anthony Lynn, his run-heavy offensive coordinator, to the Chargers. Tracking the play calling replacement is important.
- Is 29 years old with significant mileage
- Played in 15 of 16 games, but was constantly dinged up and displayed signs of breaking down
- Rarely strings back-to-back monster seasons together. He came into 2016 motivated and in the best shape of his career, which made him such an attractive option. Ensuring he is equally prime in 2017 will be important for Shady maintaining this lofty #4 ranking.
The team still has the line and overall offensive firepower to be a running force, but the cliff is very real with Shady. Mike Gillislee is a must-own handcuff — unless he heads to New England.
6. Melvin Gordon (LAC) ↗(Previously RB7)
Stock Up Update #2: With Danny Woodhead departing for Baltimore, the receiving and red zone work that sent Gordon’s stock soaring in 2016 (41 receptions in 13 games) is available yet again. Along with the ideal coaching hire in Anthony Lynn, this increased usage only bolsters Gordon’s floor, and the only thing standing between him and the truly elite tier is health.
Stock Up Update #1: I didn’t realize just how much of a stock-booster new head coach Anthony Lynn was for running games, but, as unearthed by our trusty intern, the man absolutely breeds workhorses.
Previous Assessment: Love the Anthony Lynn hire for Gordon’s fantasy prospects (former run heavy coordinator of the Bills); still, but there’s a weird busty vibe lingering around Gordon. After going scoreless as a rookie, the 10 TDs in 13 contests feel a little flukey, especially with Danny Woodhead’s health and 2017 role an unknown (update – Woodhead as left for the Ravens); Gordon’s 2016 value was bolstered by the unforeseen boost in receptions (41 in thirteen games), and these might not even be half if the little white dude is back. Encouragingly, Lynn reportedly wants to keep offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, who was integral in Gordon’s massive rebound (the playcaller’s facilitated monster years out of the likes of Ryan Mathews and loves feeding backs at the goal line).
Tier 2.5 – Lower End RB1s
7. Jay Ajayi (MIA)↗ (Previously RB8)
Stock Up Update: Multiple porn pieces have popped up surrounding Ajayi’s 2017 value, and I’m digging all of them. First, reports emerged that the team believes he’s only getting started in his development:
Dolphins believe Jay Ajayi has "just scratched the surface"
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) January 25, 2017
Ajayi shared the sentiment, calling 2017 his “baseline”:
“I was kind of able to set a foundation for what I can do this year,” Ajayi said. “I think the thing to is set it as a baseline and just see where I can go from there. I definitely want to be consistent and have multiple productive years, continue to be productive. So that’s the goal, increasing the production.”
And then, and most importantly, coach Adam Gase gave the ascending back a major vote of confidence as the team’s unquestioned lead back, all while also discussing an expanded passing game role in Year Three:
“We do need more snaps on offense, which would entail him getting more carries,” Gase said. “He did a great job off coming along last year. We really felt good with the run scheme we were doing, just sticking his foot in the ground and getting vertical and running through tackles. If he didn’t lead the league, he was up there in yards after contact. It was really a great thing to see, his development throughout the year. Hopefully we can go even further with the passing game. He did a do good job of improving in that area. Hopefully we can take an even bigger step.”
Previous Assessment: A savage. Given the team’s reluctance to commit to Ajayi early last year, I need to hear a couple of Adam Gase Votes of Confidences before I dive headfirst in; there also seems to be a little head case to Ajayi. Still, you don’t run for 200 yards on three separate occasions without some special talent. Gase has always loved riding a workhorse when able, and Ajayi will be a high ceiling RB1 anchor if you miss on the safer options above.
8. Devonta Freeman (ATL) ↘(Previously RB6)
Stock Down Update: Shanahan has indeed departed for San Francisco, which can’t be considered anything but a negative. Indeed, new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is expected to keep many of the zone-blocking principles in place, but whether or not he can execute at Shanahan’s elite levels is highly doubtful. Moreover and as explored here, Sarksian’s offenses typically featured more downhill runs and a power-based scheme:
“We’re similar in a lot of the different schemes that we run,” Sarkisian said when talking about John Harbaugh’s 49ers teams and how his offense compared at USC. “(The 49ers are) a power running team, we love to run the power play. They love to run the counter. We love to run the counter.”
With a line built around the ZBS scheme and Freeman’s skillset fitting this best, this run game could take a major hit.
Previous Assessment: Losing coordinator Kyle Shanahan and his Zone Blocking Scheme would be tough, as Freeman has proven a glove-like fit. Of course, a predecessor who commits to the same offensive philosophy (promotion from within, perhaps?) would keep Freeman’s value sturdy. Absolutely love Freeman’s overall game, and especially love that Tevin Coleman’s heavier involvement seemed genuinely beneficial: on fresher legs, Freeman rushed for 23 more yards (1079) and the same TDs (11) despite 38 fewer attempts.
9. Carlos Hyde (SF) ↗? (Previously RB16 + RB10)
Stock Up Update #2: Kyle Shanahan’s addition already sent Hyde’s stock soaring up six spots, and now the addition of the mauling Kyle Juszczyk at fullback only furthers Hyde’s value. Injury is the only thing standing between Hyde and a massive RB1 campaign
Stock Update #1: As this article explores in great depth, Carlos Hyde’s running style and build are ideal for a zone-blocking scheme; 2016 certainly provided plenty glimpses of Hyde’s fit, with some massive RB1 weeks (193 yards vs. the Jets). Conveniently, newly hired head coach Kyle Shanahan happens to be a guru of the ZBS; from Steve Slaton, to Alfred Morris, to most Devontae Freeman and Tevin Coleman, Shanahan has made fantasy monsters out of all molds and makes. The new coach has already expressed excitement for utilizing Hyde as his featured guy while also helping the big back maximize his talent:
“Right now I see Carlos as being our back,” Kyle Shanahan said Wednesday at the NFL scouting combine. “We studied a lot of the guys on tape. He’s the guy that’s got the most…Carlos is a guy who I was a fan of coming out of college. He had a good career there. I looked at him hard when I think I was in Cleveland and I had a good feeling he was going to be a great back then.
I don’t think he’s the finished product. There’s a lot more to his game. I look forward to us helping him bring that out…Carlos was a great running back in college and he’s put some real good things on tape so far in the NFL. That’s why I look forward to having him and working with him… People overrate a little too much with scheme. If you’re a good running back in this league, you’re going to be good in your scheme, whatever that is.”
Hyde himself recognizes the upside Shanahan brings, noting:
“I’ve been watching Atlanta games, seeing how the offense just dominates team…I’m definitely looking forward to get into an offense like that. I feel like his offense will help take my game to the next level.”
Indeed, Hyde’s durability will remain a major risk, but this running game will produce for as long as he’s out there, even if the surrounding talent is lackluster. Hyde couldn’t have asked for a better coaching hire
Love the talent, hate his surrounding situation. The coach / coordinator hire is a big one for Hyde, as Chip Kelly’s run-heavy power scheme really suited his strengths and facilitated his RB1 season.
Continue reading on for who to target as your RB2 in 2017
