Fallers
Week 3 featured more Risers and Sleepers than specific Fallers.
However, when certain players to gain value, it often comes at the expense of others. Here’s some guys who are falling as others around them rise.
1) CJ Anderson Nothing More Than an Upside Handcuff
In Christian McCaffrey‘s case, CJ Anderson is a clear “Faller.” He’s logged only 7-of-66 First Team Snaps (11%), including none within the Red Zone where he was originally expected to be active. Anderson remains a valuable handcuff, as he’d likely inherit the “Norv Turner Workhorse“ role in this explosive attack if tragedy strikes. Still, we once expected Anderson to carry standalone value and fair TD upside, and McCaffrey’s usage suggests this will most certainly not be the case.
2) Sammy Watkins Sinking Further Down the Chiefs’ Target Totem Pole
Player A: 1-of-7 (16% target share), 15 yards, 0 TDs (1 int, 1 drop, 1 dropped int)
Player B: 14-of-14 (33% target share), 183 yards, 1 TD
You probably know where this is going.
Clearly, Patrick Mahomes prefers to target Tyreek Hill, who’s been the engine of this passing attack at every layer of the field. Meanwhile, Watkins has struggled to get open and produce on his looks, showing a concerning lack of chemistry with Mahomes and looking more confused than comfortable.
This is highly concerning, as Watkins would now appear to be, at best, fourth on the target totem pole (behind Hill, Travis Kelce, and even Kareem Hunt). While he tracks the long ball well and will certainly have some blow-ups, Watkins will be extremely tough to project each week. This is even more pronounced with no rapport with his QB.
3) Ronald Jones Even More Firmly Behind Peyton Barber
For the third straight week, Barber started and seriously outplayed Jones, cementing his place atop the depth chart even further.
Jones has now taken his 18 carries for a whopping 18 yards — a robust 1.0 YPC, as compared to 15-87-2 TDs for Barber (5.8 YPC). He’s simply not displaying the vision or power needed to succeed at the NFL level right now, and will remain firmly behind Barber until the game begins slowing down (if this happens).
Penny Stock Sleepers
1)Adrian Peterson Rises from the Fantasy Graveyard in Excellent Redskins Debut
Just four days after joining the Redskins, Adrian Peterson looked right at home in his 2018 debut. The 33-year old looked fresh and spry while racking up 11 carries for 56 yard on 14 of 25 first-team snaps (56%). This backfield is wide-open following Derrius Guice’s season-ending ACL tear, and Peterson showed far more upside than plodding mates Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine. Perhaps now the favorite for early-down work, AP suddenly becomes a highly-intriguing “Penny Stock.”
Entering the contest, the Redskins reportedly wanted “to see if AP can still be explosive by how he hits the hole. Or how he handles having consecutive carries.” Consider both boxes checked off emphatically, as Peterson hit the hole hard all night, and displayed excellent vision on a few runs which he bounced outside and turned no-gainers into 10+ yards. His last carry was the exclamation point, as the Redskins turned to Peterson on a 4th-and-inches that appeared dead in the hole, but he displayed his trademark jump-cut to get outside and gain 15 yards.
Considering the slugs AP’s competing with, just this quick showing might be all HC Jay Gruden needs to see to hand over early down work. Post-game, Gruden raved: “I saw a big guy running pretty hard,” Redskins coach Jay Gruden said. “The thing I liked about some of his runs is, he looked like he had a gains of 1 yard and fell forward for 3. I thought [the first run] was a 3-yard gain, and all of a sudden it’s second-and-3. I was impressed with Adrian the way he ran.”
Overall, AP seems on the path to significant work behind PFF’s 12th best line, and inside an offense that should move the ball well under Alex Smith. Even if it wasn’t pretty, AP showed the ability to shoulder a heavy workload in Arizona last year, including 26 – 134 – 2 TD and 37 – 159 efforts (mixed in with three games under 2.0 YPC). If he holds up and can gain a stranglehold on the early-down work, AP could certainly carve out flex value, making him well-worth a 9th or 10th round stab.
Speaking of RBs rising from the Dead…
2) Alfred Morris Rumbles in 49ers Debut and Return to Kyle Shanahan’s Scheme (Fantasy Football Sleeper)
Newly acquired Alfred Morris looked like his old bulldozing, workhorse self versus the Colts, taking 17 carries for 84 yards (4.94 YPC) in his first 49ers start. Morris is likely to play behind both Jerick McKinnon and Matt Brieda, who both sat with respective knee and shoulder injuries. Still, he’s dominated in Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme before, and would carries huge upside in the case McKinnon and/or Brieda’s injuries linger.
Moreover, Morris brings a different “power element” to this backfield as compared to the quicker McKinnon and Brieda. He could certainly carve out a short yardage / goalline hammer standalone role, in addition to his value as one of the highest upside handcuffs in the game.
In 2012 as a late-round rookie handpicked by Shanahan, Morris supplanted the nominal starter after a studly preseason. That season, he rumbled for a whopping 335 carries, 1,613 yards, and 13 TDs. This was followed by a less beastly, but still impressive 276 carries, 1,275 yards, and 7 TDs in 2013. Indeed, those are light years ago, but Morris looked plenty fresh in spot-start duty with the Cowboys, ranking No. 7 of 47 RBs in Football Outsiders’ Rushing Success Rate last season, and No. 4 of 53 in PFF’s yards after contact per attempt.
Currently undrafted, Morris’ handcuff value alone makes him worth a late round “Penny Stock” dart throw. With the ability to carve out a standalone short yardage role amidst a crew of smaller backs, combined with his past dominance under Shanahan, the upside is far higher than most would think. Meanwhile, McKinnon’s risk continues growing, as a potential GL Vulture has now emerged behind him, as well as someone capable of shouldering the load if he falters.
3) Chris Godwin Continues to Take Advantage of Every Opportunity, Firmly on Penny Stock Radar
There’s an elite-athletic wide receiver down in Tampa who is ready to take the next step and fill the outside role across from Mike Evans — and it’s not DeSean Jackson. It’s former Penn State and second-year wide receiver, Chris Godwin. “Last year I was a little bit under the radar, and I’m fine with that,” Godwin said. “It allowed me to prepare as if I’m a starter, so you saw when I got my opportunities, I was able to take advantage.” And thus far this preseason, he has more than taken advantage, posting a 14-155-2 statline.
With DeSean Jackson moving to the slot and Godwin taking advantage of every chance he’s been given, he will be the starter across from Mike Evans. During the Bucs dress rehearsal, the starters were given 35 snaps against the Lions. Godwin had one less snap (24) than the leader (Adam Humphries) and six more than Jackson. He finished with 27 yards on three receptions from Jameis Winston, highlighted by an incredible, Randy Moss-like catch over shut-down corner Darius Slay. This contested catch was no fluke though, as wide receiver expert Matt Harmon charted a 85.7 percent contested catch rate for Godwin in college, which was the second-best percentage over the last three seasons.
This should not be a surprise to anyone though, as Godwin was prolific at Penn State, totaling 2,421 yards and 18 touchdowns on 154 receptions. Not only did Godwin rip up the Big Ten, but he also dominated the NFL Combine. According to DraftKings, the elite NFL wide receivers stack up like this: they’re at least 6-foot-0, at least 205 pounds, sub-4.50 speed, at least 35-inch vertical and at least 120-inch broad jump. The only player who checked off each box in the 2017 rookie WR class? Chris Godwin.
The Bucs WR is currently tending upward as our WR54. Add him to your Penny Stock list.
Chris Godwin (@CGtwelve_) GETS UP for the @Buccaneers TD! #DETvsTB https://t.co/OiTbN4T9di
— NFL (@NFL) August 25, 2018
4) Eric Ebron is Building a Connection With Andrew Luck, Snags Touchdown on 5 Targets
It just so happens after our episode of The Fantasy Fullback Dive with Eliot Crist, where he called Colts TE Eric Ebron one of his most undervalued tight ends — he caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and a score during their dress-rehearsal game. Ebron has been building a rapport with Andrew Luck and has potentially overtaken Jack “The Beanstalk” Doyle as Luck’s primary tight end.
Ebron’s pass-catching potential and athleticism have never been the question mark with the talented tight end, it’s been his lack of consistency, his dropped passes and lack of focus or effort that has made him a semi-bust. New HC Frank Reich’s tight end heavy scheme could be just the thing that revives Ebron’s career and untaps his full potential.
Coming from the Eagles who utilized Zach Ertz and Trey Burton to their full potentials, it’s safe to say Ebron will be used all over the formation by Reich. He’ll be lined up in the slot or even split out as a receiver, while Doyle is on the line of scrimmage.
Colts TE coach Tom Manning “had tapes of Zach Ertz last year, Antonio Gates (in San Diego) and (Trey) Burton over there in Philadelphia,” OC Nick Sirianni recalled. “He had so many little stats and tapes put together. (It was) about treating (Ebron) the right way. He is a phenomenal talent so we would be foolish not to want him on our team.”
Ebron has been a disappointment thus far in his career, but if he’s going to blow up anywhere, it’s under Reich.
5) The Electric Tre’Quan Smith Continues to Dazzle, Drips High-Upside Penny Stock Potential
When Saints insider Nick Underhill joined The Fantasy Fullback Dive last week, he couldn’t stop gushing about rookie wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith. Underhill described him as a player who, “runs the whole route tree, he can get deep, he can make contested catches.” Those attributes were on display Saturday night when he caught all four of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. Through his first three preseason games, the rookie has totaled an impressive 11-147-1 statline that has the fantasy community circling him on their respective Penny Stock lists.
Although Smith is currently playing behind veteran Ted Ginn and will likely start off the season behind free agent acquisition (and RSJ favorite) Cam Meredith, Smith has a legit chance to win the No. 2 WR job behind the studly Mike Thomas. Underhill really stressed the fact that Tre’Quan has been making highlight plays throughout camp, and even though he hasn’t been consistent since day one of camp, his potential is limitless and he could easily win that spot.
Since the starters will likely sit during Preseason Week 4, Smith has to continue to make plays in practice and ball out in the finale with the backups. Underhill stated that “Tre’Quan and Cam [Meredith] are in direct competition together.” Meaning if Meredith can’t get out of the tub, Smith will get his chance to shine as the second notch of the Saints ‘Target Totem Pole.’ Listen to the full interview with Underhill, here.
With all of the meaningful Preseason Action wrapped up, be sure to reserve your copy of our 2018 Draft Day Guide by joining the Fantasy Wolfpack (for FREE – limited time). This is loaded with 50+ pages of updated Bargains, Overpriced Avoids, and Penny Stocks.
