I apologize to anyone out there who bet on Darren Waller to score a TD last week against the Falcons. I failed to take into consideration the inevitable collapse of the 2020 Las Vegas Raiders. Fortunately, DeAndre Hopkins had another average day in Foxborough so we finished off the week at 1-1. Taysom Hill did end up scoring against the Broncos, so congrats to anyone who was able to grab that prop before it was taken off the board. Nevertheless, we are on to Week 13 after the longest week in NFL history. There is certainly some interesting games this week, but the game of the week might actually be the Cleveland Browns at the Tennessee Titans. Who would have thought? NOT ME! Shoutout Paul Rudd. Anyway, let’s get right into the picks.
1. Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TD passes
The early slate this week is definitely not the best we’ve ever had, but it’s not the worst either. As much as I really want to watch every snap of the Lions/Bears game, my main focus will be on Baker Mayfield and the Browns as they travel south to take on Derrick Henry and the Titans. As the two former Heisman trophy winners faceoff, I will be looking for Baker Mayfield to throw for over 1.5 TDs (+133). I love the value we’re getting here as Baker is lining up across a Tennessee defense that has given up 23 passing touchdowns which is tied for second-most in the league with the Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Vikings. The Wolf has Mayfield as his QB23 in his Week 13 rankings despite the fact that the Titans give up a whopping 268.5 passing yards per game. Mayfield has definitely warranted a fair share of criticism over the years, but I don’t think he’s incapable of throwing two TD passes against one of the league’s worst defenses.
You might look at Mayfield’s month of November and be scared off due to the fact that he only passed for two touchdowns the entire month, but fear not. Three out of four of the Browns’ games in November were home games in Cleveland in which they experienced severe winds, heavy, and even graupel. As a result, the Browns were forced to run the ball far more often. In fact, Mayfield threw a combined 67 passes, while the backfield rushed the ball a combined 103 attempts. You could chalk this up to the fact that the Cleveland coaching staff doesn’t trust Mayfield to throw the ball; however, just last week he attempted 29 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns as the Browns took on the Jaguars in the warm weather of Jacksonville. It’s going to be a balmy 52 degrees in Tennessee tomorrow, so I’m riding with Baker to throw at least two TD passes.
2.Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 TD passes
With four games in the afternoon timeslot, I’m shifting my attention from one bearded quarterback to another as I am looking for Aaron Rodgers to throw for over 2.5 TDs (+155) against what is truly a horrible Philadelphia Eagles team. I might be going out on a limb here as the Eagles have actually given up the third-fewest touchdown passes in the league this year behind only the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Rams. However, Rodgers has fared quite well against some of the league’s top defenses this year as he has thrown for three or more touchdowns against the Saints, 49ers, Colts, and Bears. And as good as the Eagles defense might be, their real issue comes on the other side of the ball.
With Carson Wentz under center, the Eagles offense ranks 28th in total yards per game. The Eagles inability to move the ball down the field will result in plenty of three and outs which will give Rodgers more than enough opportunities to surpass the 2.5 TD total. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers throws 5 TDs. The Wolf has Rodgers as QB2 this week behind only Patrick Mahomes. And just like Mahomes, Rodgers has been lighting up opposing defenses all season. In all but three games this year, Rodgers has thrown at least three touchdown passes. I’m looking for another strong performance out of Rodgers Sunday as I will absolutely be hammering the over on this total.
3.Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 50.5 yards
For the second time in three weeks, we have a classic AFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football as the Denver Broncos travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Consequently, for the second time in three weeks, I have my sights focused in on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This time around, I’m looking for Edwards-Helaire to rush for over 50.5 yards (-112) against a Denver defense who gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game this season.
When these two teams met on a snowy October day in Denver, Edwards-Helaire rushed for just 46 yards and a TD on eight carries. Since then, Denver’s defense has not done much in terms of stopping the run. In fact, they’ve given up an average of 138.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs in those five weeks. I know it may seem like a tall task for Edwards-Helaire to rush for 51 yards as he has only averaged 9 carries a game in the month of November, but given the soft matchup, I could see Andy Reid giving the rookie running back at least 15 carries on Sunday. Despite the fact that The Wolf has Edwards-Helaire as his RB24 this week, I’m confident Edwards-Helaire will surpass that 51 rushing yards total. That being said, if you need to win your matchup this week in fantasy, I know 51 rushing yards from Edwards-Helaire will most certainly not get the job done.
You can find all these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Good luck everybody! Let’s win some money! And, as always, bet responsibly!
