Next to the Patriots and the Packers, the Saints have had the most stability at the quarterback position over the last 15 years. But when Drew Brees announced he was finally hanging up the cleats, Sean Payton had to choose his quarterback of the future: gadget player/quarterback Taysom Hill or turnover machine Jameis Winston.
In what has surprisingly become a highly contested battle, Saints fans and fantasy owners are seen scrolling through their Twitter timelines every day to see which player is leading the first-team offense.
“There should be a battle to determine who deserves the job,” wrote Saints’ beat writer Nick Underhill. “Hill deserves the opportunity to show that he can make quicker decisions and get the ball out faster, and Winston needs to show he can protect the ball and make better decisions. Whoever is better at leading the offense should win the job, but they’ll need to earn it.”
Thus far, both have had good days and both have had medicore days. But if one thing is for certain, it’s still extremely close after one week of training camp.
THE CASE FOR TAYSOM
Was there anything more annoying than watching Brees compose a methodical drive down to the opposing 20 yard-line, just to watch No. 7 sprint in, line up in shotgun, and see Brees’ geriatric body jog out wide as a useless receiver?
To answer my own question… no, there wasn’t.
Did Hill have provocative photos of Payton? Did he walk in on him cheating on his wife? We’ll never know. But, Louis Riddick said he sees Payton’s attraction for Hill. “It’s consistent. He doesn’t waver.”
Considering Payton wanted no part of adding a legitimate wideout during the last two WR-heavy NFL drafts, the Saints are shit out of luck with Michael Thomas out of the lineup for the foreseeable future. The winner of the contest will throw to the likes of Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Adam Trautman, and a handful of no-names.
This leads me to believe the QB job is now Hill’s to lose and Payton will roll with a ground-heavy attack featuring Hill, Alvin Kamara, and Latavius Murray. Payton isn’t going to trust Winston, who is coming off a 30 interception season in 2019, to force passes to a group of below-average wideouts.
I thought my hypothesis was correct when Hill led the first-team offense during the team’s first training camp practice… not so fast, my friend.
“Taysom Hill got the first opportunity to work with the starting offense, though no one should read into that,” Underhill noted. “Sean Payton said the two players will work with different units throughout camp. Today was simply Hill’s turn and Jameis Winston will likely have his turn sooner than later.”
While I’m the President of the Taysom Hill Hater fan club, I have to admit he exceeded my expectations as the Saints’ starting emergency quarterback in 2020.
From both a real-life and fantasy perspective, Hill won games for the Saints and for his fantasy owners. He surprisingly completed over 72 percent of his passes in three of his four starts and accounted for eight total touchdowns during those four games. He also averaged over 20 fantasy points per game during that starting stretch.
Even though most would expect a ground attack, Hill winning the job would be bad news for Kamara’s 2021 fantasy outlook.
Once a candidate for 2020 Fantasy MVP, Kamara fell off a cliff when Taysom was named the starter.
In the first game without Brees, Kamara put up a paltry 10.50 half PPR points and then followed it up with a pathetic 5.70 fantasy points in the next game. Although he sort of recovered with 16.70 and 18.90 outings over the last two games, he was never the bonafide cheat-code that he was with Brees under center, due to Hill’s inability to check down to the running back.
With Michael Thomas shelved, Taysom Hill's starting odds just increased x1000.
A killer for Alvin Kamara's receiving?
Per game splits w/ Brees v. Hill (2020):
Tgts: 8.89 v. 4
Rec: 7.44 v 2.5
ReYds: 72 v. 12.7
FPs: 27.4 v 14.2But who else will Hill even have to throw to?
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) July 23, 2021
But, Hill could be looking Kamara’s way with Thomas sidelined and no one else to throw to.
“Hill did a good job of reading the field and getting the ball out,” Underhill said about the first practice. “His touch on a screen to Kamara was a sign of growth, and he was smart to recognize a mismatch on a quick pass to Callaway with linebacker Pete Werner in coverage.”
On the other hand, Murray could be a solid late-round sleeper with Payton likely to lean on the run game. The Saints proved they could make two running backs viable fantasy options in the past and it could happen again in 2021. Murray’s current ADP is RB45, behind the likes of Devin Singletary, Tony Pollard, and Nyheim Hines.
THE CASE FOR JAMEIS
Although Hill received first-team reps to start camp, Winston has had his chance to lead the ones and he actually put together the best individual practice between the two quarterbacks.
Jameis Winston just had the best practice of any QB since camp started
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) August 2, 2021
While I believe Hill would get the nod due to the Thomas injury, a little birdy at Saints practice believes the injury gave Winston the edge due to Hill’s play-making at other spots in the offense. Since 2018, Hill has had 151 rushing attempts for 809 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 30 receptions for 336 yards and seven touchdowns.
If Winston wins the job, Hill will return to his “jack-of-all-trades role,” which will likely include some plays at QB — similarly to when Brees returned from injury late last year. AKA, he will go back to the annoying gadget player who takes the starter off the field in the red zone and will likely steal a few critical touchdowns from Winston.
As for Hill’s fantasy outlook in this situation, stash Hill on your bench because Winston is only a few interceptions away from being stapled to the bench.
On the flip side, the great Ian Hartitz noted Jameis’ fantasy glory has been quite overrated.
He might have been slightly blind during this time period, but he’s only put up one QB1 season in fantasy points per game during his time as a starting quarterback. Since 2019, he’s been the QB8, QB15, QB18, QB20, and QB19. Not to mention he was throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Adam Humphries, DeSean Jackson, OJ Howard, and other studs during this time.
It may not be as easy with a handful of fringe NFL guys out-wide.
VERDICT: STILL UP IN THE AIR
Hill and Winson are stylistically very different and it’s up to Payton and OC Pete Carmichael to create a base offense that works for both quarterbacks, but one that can also be optimized to fit each player.
“None of this is laminated,” Payton said. “You’re moving in with plans, you’re moving in with featured groupings of plays, personnel groupings, and yet there’s always some adaptability to what you’re doing. And that can be week-to-week also, throughout the season.”
It won’t be ideal for fantasy owners (or the team), but it’s safe to say this struggle could go on for the remainder of training camp. But with Thomas set to miss a huge chunk of the season, fantasy owners shouldn’t be upset if they see Taysom lead a high school offense every week with a ton of touches for Kamara and Murray.
My Underdog Best Ball squads would also be happy, considering Hill is on about 90 percent of my teams at last-round value.
Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel and the Fantasy Fullback Dive podcast for our upcoming interview with Underhill to get the inside scoop on this quarterback battle.
The Wolf is currently giving the edge to Hill, who is his QB26, while Winston sits at QB31 on his 2021 Fantasy Rankings & Big Board.
