I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).
XFP essentially shows what an average player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.
The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.
For a more general overview of my trading strategy, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.
Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 2.
Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel Sheet has data broken out for all weeks individually.
Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.
| Player | POS | G | PPG | XFP | DIF | CAR | TGT | AIR YDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.ADAMS, LV | WR | 3 | 17.8 | 24.8 | -7 | 0.3 | 11.3 | 111.3 |
| J.MIXON, CIN | RB | 3 | 13.2 | 24.7 | -11.5 | 19.7 | 6.7 | -6 |
| J.CHASE, CIN | WR | 3 | 17.5 | 23.8 | -6.3 | 1 | 11.7 | 96.3 |
| S.DIGGS, BUF | WR | 3 | 28.5 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 0 | 11.3 | 111.3 |
| C.KUPP, LA | WR | 3 | 26.7 | 23.5 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 11.7 | 108.7 |
| M.BROWN, ARI | WR | 3 | 18.4 | 22.6 | -4.2 | 0 | 11.3 | 111.7 |
| D.JOHNSON, PIT | WR | 3 | 14.2 | 21.7 | -7.5 | 0 | 11 | 122.7 |
| C.LAMB, DAL | WR | 3 | 14.2 | 21.6 | -7.4 | 0.3 | 11.3 | 112.7 |
| G.WILSON, NYJ | WR | 3 | 17.1 | 21.5 | -4.4 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 106 |
| C.SAMUEL, WAS | WR | 3 | 18.4 | 21.4 | -3 | 2.7 | 10 | 35 |
| A.BROWN, PHI | WR | 3 | 19 | 21.3 | -2.3 | 0 | 10.3 | 111.7 |
| C.SUTTON, DEN | WR | 3 | 16.2 | 20.9 | -4.7 | 0.3 | 9.3 | 118 |
| A.ST. BROWN, DET | WR | 3 | 24.4 | 20.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 11 | 65.3 |
| C.OLAVE, NO | WR | 3 | 14.6 | 20.8 | -6.2 | 0 | 9.7 | 178.7 |
| M.PITTMAN, IND | WR | 2 | 21.2 | 20.7 | 0.5 | 0 | 11 | 73.5 |
| J.WILLIAMS, DEN | RB | 3 | 12.8 | 20.5 | -7.7 | 12.7 | 7 | -7 |
| M.ANDREWS, BAL | TE | 3 | 21.6 | 20.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 10.3 | 125.3 |
| S.BARKLEY, NYG | RB | 3 | 22.6 | 20.4 | 2.2 | 17.7 | 5 | -1.7 |
| J.JEFFERSON, MIN | WR | 3 | 18.2 | 20.1 | -1.9 | 0 | 9.7 | 81 |
| J.TAYLOR, IND | RB | 3 | 15.6 | 19.9 | -4.3 | 20.7 | 4.3 | -4 |
| A.GIBSON, WAS | RB | 3 | 14.4 | 19.1 | -4.7 | 13.3 | 4.3 | 6.3 |
| J.WADDLE, MIA | WR | 3 | 24.3 | 19.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 10 | 111.7 |
| B.COOKS, HOU | WR | 3 | 9.6 | 18.8 | -9.2 | 0 | 9.7 | 90.3 |
| T.HILL, MIA | WR | 3 | 21.8 | 18.3 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 9.7 | 93.7 |
| T.KELCE, KC | TE | 3 | 18 | 18.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 8 | 71 |
| C.KIRK, JAX | WR | 3 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 2.8 | 0 | 9 | 76.3 |
| J.MEYERS, NE | WR | 2 | 14.4 | 18 | -3.6 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 102.5 |
| A.EKELER, LAC | RB | 3 | 14.3 | 17.9 | -3.6 | 10.7 | 7.3 | -14 |
| L.FOURNETTE, TB | RB | 3 | 12.4 | 17.8 | -5.4 | 19.3 | 4 | -4.3 |
| A.COOPER, CLE | WR | 3 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 94.3 |
| D.METCALF, SEA | WR | 3 | 11.2 | 17.5 | -6.3 | 0 | 8.3 | 76.7 |
| C.MCCAFFREY, CAR | RB | 3 | 15.3 | 17.3 | -2 | 17 | 4.3 | -4 |
| Z.ERTZ, ARI | TE | 3 | 12.5 | 17 | -4.5 | 0 | 8.3 | 46.3 |
| D.HENRY, TEN | RB | 3 | 14 | 16.9 | -2.9 | 18.3 | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| B.HALL, NYJ | RB | 3 | 12.8 | 16.9 | -4.1 | 7 | 7.3 | 29.7 |
| D.SAMUEL, SF | WR | 3 | 13.4 | 16.6 | -3.2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 29.3 |
| D.LONDON, ATL | WR | 3 | 17.1 | 16.5 | 0.6 | 0 | 8.3 | 90.7 |
| N.CHUBB, CLE | RB | 3 | 21.6 | 15.9 | 5.7 | 21.3 | 1.7 | -2 |
| D.SMITH, PHI | WR | 3 | 15.3 | 15.7 | -0.4 | 0 | 7.7 | 94.7 |
| M.THOMAS, NO | WR | 3 | 17 | 15.7 | 1.3 | 0 | 7.3 | 79 |
| N.HARRIS, PIT | RB | 3 | 12.5 | 15.6 | -3.1 | 13.3 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| A.DILLON, GB | RB | 3 | 11.2 | 15.5 | -4.3 | 13.7 | 4 | 2.3 |
| A.KAMARA, NO | RB | 2 | 7.5 | 15.5 | -8 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 13.5 |
| J.CONNER, ARI | RB | 3 | 10.8 | 15.5 | -4.7 | 10.3 | 5 | 8.3 |
| T.LOCKETT, SEA | WR | 3 | 14 | 15.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 8.7 | 90 |
| D.SINGLETARY, BUF | RB | 3 | 12.1 | 15.4 | -3.3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 1.3 |
| S.SHEPARD, NYG | WR | 3 | 11.5 | 15.3 | -3.8 | 0 | 8 | 75 |
| J.ROBINSON, JAX | RB | 3 | 18.8 | 15.2 | 3.6 | 18 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| K.HUNT, CLE | RB | 3 | 13.8 | 15.2 | -1.4 | 12 | 3.3 | -2.7 |
| Z.JONES, JAX | WR | 3 | 14.1 | 15.1 | -1 | 0.3 | 8 | 50 |
| D.WALLER, LV | TE | 3 | 11.4 | 15 | -3.6 | 0 | 6.3 | 66 |
| E.MOORE, NYJ | WR | 3 | 8.4 | 14.8 | -6.4 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 97.3 |
| N.BROWN, DAL | WR | 3 | 14.1 | 14.4 | -0.3 | 0 | 7 | 71 |
| T.HIGBEE, LA | TE | 3 | 11 | 14.3 | -3.3 | 0 | 8 | 25.3 |
| T.CONKLIN, NYJ | TE | 3 | 12.6 | 14.3 | -1.7 | 0 | 8 | 15.7 |
| H.RENFROW, LV | WR | 2 | 8 | 14.2 | -6.2 | 0 | 8 | 25 |
| J.PALMER, LAC | WR | 3 | 10.9 | 14.2 | -3.3 | 0.3 | 7 | 41.7 |
| J.WILLIAMS, DET | RB | 3 | 15.9 | 14 | 1.9 | 14.3 | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| M.CARTER, NYJ | RB | 3 | 10.9 | 14 | -3.1 | 10.3 | 5.3 | -3.7 |
| C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KC | RB | 3 | 17.7 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 4 | -4.7 |
| B.AIYUK, SF | WR | 3 | 10.3 | 13.9 | -3.6 | 0.3 | 6 | 73.7 |
| J.MCKISSIC, WAS | RB | 3 | 10.4 | 13.7 | -3.3 | 3 | 6.3 | 13.7 |
| A.JONES, GB | RB | 3 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 2.5 | 10.7 | 4 | 1.3 |
| A.THIELEN, MIN | WR | 3 | 11.3 | 13.6 | -2.3 | 0 | 6.3 | 65 |
| D.COOK, MIN | RB | 3 | 11.7 | 13.6 | -1.9 | 14.3 | 3.7 | -6.3 |
| J.JACOBS, LV | RB | 3 | 10.7 | 13.6 | -2.9 | 14.3 | 2.7 | -1 |
| J.WILSON, SF | RB | 3 | 9.6 | 13.6 | -4 | 14 | 2.3 | 6.7 |
| G.DORTCH, ARI | WR | 3 | 15.3 | 13.6 | 1.7 | 0 | 7.7 | 40.3 |
| C.PATTERSON, ATL | RB | 3 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 2.8 | 17.7 | 2.3 | 6.7 |
| M.GORDON, DEN | RB | 3 | 10 | 13.4 | -3.4 | 11.3 | 3 | 2 |
| T.MCLAURIN, WAS | WR | 3 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 7 | 110 |
| M.HOLLINS, LV | WR | 3 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0 | 6.3 | 71 |
| R.GAGE, TB | WR | 3 | 11.9 | 13.4 | -1.5 | 0 | 7 | 25.3 |
| D.HARRIS, NE | RB | 3 | 12.4 | 13.2 | -0.8 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| P.FREIERMUTH, PIT | TE | 3 | 10.3 | 13.1 | -2.8 | 0 | 7 | 57.7 |
| M.JONES, JAX | WR | 3 | 9.1 | 13 | -3.9 | 0 | 6 | 86 |
| G.EVERETT, LAC | TE | 3 | 10.7 | 13 | -2.3 | 0 | 6.7 | 46.7 |
| D.PIERCE, HOU | RB | 3 | 10.6 | 13 | -2.4 | 15.7 | 1.3 | 1 |
| C.CLAYPOOL, PIT | WR | 3 | 7.9 | 12.9 | -5 | 2.3 | 6 | 51.3 |
| J.DOTSON, WAS | WR | 3 | 13 | 12.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 6 | 81.7 |
| R.BURKHEAD, HOU | RB | 3 | 7.3 | 12.7 | -5.4 | 6 | 5.3 | 10.3 |
| K.PITTS, ATL | TE | 3 | 7.2 | 12.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 6 | 94.3 |
| T.HIGGINS, CIN | WR | 3 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 6.3 | 71.3 |
| M.SANDERS, PHI | RB | 3 | 11.8 | 12.3 | -0.5 | 15 | 2 | -3 |
| M.WILLIAMS, LAC | WR | 3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 | 85.7 |
| T.POLLARD, DAL | RB | 3 | 11.5 | 12.3 | -0.8 | 10 | 3.3 | -0.7 |
| D.CHARK, DET | WR | 3 | 7.6 | 12.2 | -4.6 | 0 | 6 | 109.3 |
| C.DAVIS, NYJ | WR | 3 | 11.6 | 12.1 | -0.5 | 0 | 6 | 104.3 |
| M.VALDES-SCANTLING, KC | WR | 3 | 6.7 | 12.1 | -5.4 | 0.3 | 6 | 63 |
| J.SMITH-SCHUSTER, KC | WR | 3 | 9.9 | 12 | -2.1 | 0 | 6.3 | 66.3 |
| J.LANDRY, NO | WR | 3 | 9.7 | 11.5 | -1.8 | 0 | 6.3 | 73.3 |
| D.SWIFT, DET | RB | 3 | 16.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 4 | 2.3 |
| R.STEVENSON, NE | RB | 3 | 10.3 | 11.4 | -1.1 | 10 | 3 | 2.3 |
| T.HOCKENSON, DET | TE | 3 | 8.1 | 11.4 | -3.3 | 0 | 6 | 36.3 |
| N.HINES, IND | RB | 3 | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
| D.MOORE, CAR | WR | 3 | 7.9 | 11.2 | -3.3 | 1 | 6 | 57 |
| J.REYNOLDS, DET | WR | 3 | 10.7 | 11.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 5.3 | 80.3 |
| D.SCHULTZ, DAL | TE | 2 | 7.5 | 11 | -3.5 | 0 | 6.5 | 33 |
| G.DAVIS, BUF | WR | 2 | 12.8 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | 5.5 | 76 |
| T.BOYD, CIN | WR | 3 | 13.2 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | 4.7 | 51.7 |
| T.DAVIS-PRICE, SF | RB | 1 | 3.3 | 11 | -7.7 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| E.ELLIOTT, DAL | RB | 3 | 8.8 | 10.9 | -2.1 | 13.7 | 1.7 | -4 |
| R.ANDERSON, CAR | WR | 3 | 9.3 | 10.9 | -1.6 | 0 | 5.7 | 59 |
| T.ETIENNE, JAX | RB | 3 | 9.1 | 10.9 | -1.8 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| J.JEUDY, DEN | WR | 3 | 8.7 | 10.8 | -2.1 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 65.3 |
| M.EVANS, TB | WR | 2 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 0 | 5.5 | 75.5 |
| J.JONES, TB | WR | 1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 0.8 | 2 | 5 | 110 |
| K.HERBERT, CHI | RB | 3 | 15.8 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 11 | 1.3 | -2.7 |
| E.ENGRAM, JAX | TE | 3 | 7.4 | 10.6 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 5 | 24 |
| R.WOODS, TEN | WR | 3 | 7.6 | 10.6 | -3 | 0 | 5.3 | 57.7 |
| I.SMITH, MIN | TE | 3 | 6.6 | 10.4 | -3.8 | 0 | 5.3 | 32.3 |
| D.NJOKU, CLE | TE | 3 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 5.3 | 21 |
| R.JAMES, NYG | WR | 3 | 9.7 | 10.3 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 52 |
| H.HURST, CIN | TE | 3 | 6.2 | 10.3 | -4.1 | 0 | 5.7 | 21.7 |
| A.GREEN, ARI | WR | 3 | 3.3 | 10.2 | -6.9 | 0 | 4.3 | 38.3 |
| R.BATEMAN, BAL | WR | 3 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0 | 5.3 | 93.7 |
| C.EDMONDS, MIA | RB | 3 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 6.3 |
| I.MCKENZIE, BUF | WR | 3 | 12.3 | 10 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 5 | 37 |
| R.DOUBS, GB | WR | 3 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 23.7 |
| N.COLLINS, HOU | WR | 3 | 6.8 | 9.8 | -3 | 0 | 5.3 | 66.3 |
| E.BENJAMIN, ARI | RB | 3 | 7.2 | 9.7 | -2.5 | 5.7 | 4 | -7 |
| A.ROBINSON, LA | WR | 3 | 7.3 | 9.7 | -2.4 | 0 | 4 | 34.7 |
| D.PARKER, NE | WR | 3 | 7.5 | 9.7 | -2.2 | 0 | 4.7 | 97 |
| D.PEOPLES-JONES, CLE | WR | 3 | 4.7 | 9.6 | -4.9 | 0 | 5 | 36.3 |
| D.MONTGOMERY, CHI | RB | 3 | 8.2 | 9.5 | -1.3 | 12 | 2 | -1.3 |
| A.LAZARD, GB | WR | 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 61.5 |
| A.DULIN, IND | WR | 3 | 7.5 | 9.4 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 59.7 |
| L.THOMAS, WAS | TE | 3 | 7.6 | 9.2 | -1.6 | 0 | 4.7 | 50.3 |
| D.GOEDERT, PHI | TE | 3 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 0 | 4.7 | 18 |
| K.OSBORN, MIN | WR | 3 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 0.4 | 0 | 4.7 | 53.7 |
| C.AKERS, LA | RB | 3 | 6.1 | 8.7 | -2.6 | 10.3 | 1 | 3.3 |
| K.PHILIPS, TEN | WR | 2 | 5.1 | 8.7 | -3.6 | 0 | 5 | 36 |
| D.HENDERSON, LA | RB | 3 | 8.2 | 8.6 | -0.4 | 9.3 | 2 | 1 |
| N.AGHOLOR, NE | WR | 3 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 0 | 4.7 | 65.3 |
| G.KITTLE, SF | TE | 1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| R.PENNY, SEA | RB | 3 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 11.3 | 1.3 | -4.3 |
| T.MONTGOMERY, NE | WR | 1 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| M.HARDMAN, KC | WR | 3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 43 |
| S.SMITH, CAR | WR | 3 | 2.5 | 8.3 | -5.8 | 0 | 3.7 | 33 |
| G.PICKENS, PIT | WR | 3 | 3.8 | 8.3 | -4.5 | 0 | 4.3 | 76 |
| C.BRATE, TB | TE | 3 | 4.6 | 8.2 | -3.6 | 0 | 3.7 | 26.3 |
| T.BURKS, TEN | WR | 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 56 |
| J.JOHNSON, NO | TE | 3 | 4.8 | 8 | -3.2 | 0 | 4.3 | 44.7 |
| B.PERRIMAN, TB | WR | 3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | -1.8 | 0.7 | 4 | 67 |
| R.TONYAN, GB | TE | 3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | -1.3 | 0 | 4.7 | 11.7 |
| B.SKOWRONEK, LA | WR | 3 | 6.9 | 7.7 | -0.8 | 0 | 4.3 | 41.7 |
| J.MCKINNON, KC | RB | 3 | 6.5 | 7.6 | -1.1 | 5 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| R.MOSTERT, MIA | RB | 3 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 8.3 | 2 | -0.7 |
| J.DOBBINS, BAL | RB | 1 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 2 | 4 |
| I.LIKELY, BAL | TE | 3 | 3.4 | 7.5 | -4.1 | 0 | 3.7 | 17 |
| A.PIERCE, IND | WR | 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | -2.8 | 0 | 3.5 | 43 |
| K.ALLEN, LAC | WR | 1 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 0 | 4 | 52 |
| J.SMITH, NE | TE | 3 | 4.3 | 7 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.7 | 15.7 |
| K.GAINWELL, PHI | RB | 3 | 4.9 | 7 | -2.1 | 3.3 | 2 | 1.7 |
| D.KNOX, BUF | TE | 3 | 5.4 | 6.9 | -1.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 14 |
| J.JENNINGS, SF | WR | 3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | -2.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 27.3 |
| D.CARTER, LAC | WR | 3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 44.7 |
| C.MOORE, HOU | WR | 3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | -0.5 | 0 | 3.3 | 21.7 |
| D.MOONEY, CHI | WR | 3 | 2.2 | 6.7 | -4.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 47.7 |
| K.BOURNE, NE | WR | 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 3 | 48 |
| K.GRANSON, IND | TE | 3 | 3.8 | 6.7 | -2.9 | 0 | 3.7 | 16 |
| K.WALKER, SEA | RB | 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | -1.8 | 3.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| C.BEASLEY, TB | WR | 1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | -2.5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| A.MATTISON, MIN | RB | 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | -0.1 | 5.7 | 2 | -1.7 |
| S.PERINE, CIN | RB | 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 1 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 20.7 |
| O.ZACCHEAUS, ATL | WR | 3 | 8 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0 | 2.7 | 34.3 |
| C.WATSON, GB | WR | 2 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 25 |
| Z.MOSS, BUF | RB | 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | -1.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | -1.7 |
| D.DUVERNAY, BAL | WR | 3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 32.3 |
| S.WATKINS, GB | WR | 2 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0 | 3.5 | 36 |
| D.HILLIARD, TEN | RB | 2 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 2 | 2.5 | 11 |
| K.DRAKE, BAL | RB | 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | -3.1 | 9.5 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
| A.OKWUEGBUNAM, DEN | TE | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | -2.5 | 0 | 3.3 | 9 |
| N.FANT, SEA | TE | 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | -1 | 0 | 3.3 | 14 |
| I.THOMAS, CAR | TE | 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | -1.4 | 0 | 3 | 22.3 |
| P.BROWN, HOU | TE | 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | -1 | 0 | 3.3 | 20 |
| J.COOK, BUF | RB | 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | -1.9 | 4.3 | 2 | 6.7 |
| M.INGRAM, NO | RB | 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 6.7 | 1 | -5 |
| N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TEN | WR | 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | -1.6 | 0 | 3 | 40.7 |
| D.HOUSTON, DAL | WR | 2 | 1.8 | 5.5 | -3.7 | 0 | 3 | 39.5 |
| R.COBB, GB | WR | 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.7 | 31.3 |
| H.BRYANT, CLE | TE | 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 0 | 2.7 | 26.3 |
| P.CAMPBELL, IND | WR | 3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | -2.1 | 0 | 2.7 | 15.3 |
| J.CROWDER, BUF | WR | 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | -1.9 | 0 | 3 | 27.7 |
| S.MICHEL, LAC | RB | 3 | 2.7 | 5.3 | -2.6 | 5.3 | 1 | 3.7 |
| W.DISSLY, SEA | TE | 3 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 4 | 0 | 2.7 | 12.3 |
| F.MOREAU, LV | TE | 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | -0.7 | 0 | 3 | 16.7 |
| B.JORDAN, HOU | TE | 2 | 1.9 | 5.2 | -3.3 | 0 | 3 | 21.5 |
| T.ALLGEIER, ATL | RB | 2 | 3.5 | 5.2 | -1.7 | 8 | 0.5 | -2 |
| C.GODWIN, TB | WR | 1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| M.ALIE-COX, IND | TE | 3 | 2.8 | 5 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 11.7 |
| J.KELLEY, LAC | RB | 3 | 3.8 | 5 | -1.2 | 3 | 2 | -2 |
| D.ROBINSON, BAL | WR | 3 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 0 | 2.3 | 24.7 |
| B.BOLDEN, LV | RB | 2 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| G.SWAIM, TEN | TE | 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.3 | 5.3 |
| D.WILLIAMS, ARI | RB | 3 | 5 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 3 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| D.SILLS, NYG | WR | 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | -1.2 | 0 | 2.7 | 25.7 |
| A.HOOPER, TEN | TE | 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | -1.9 | 0 | 2.7 | 20.7 |
| B.BERRIOS, NYJ | WR | 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1 | 1 | 2.3 | 14 |
| A.ISABELLA, ARI | WR | 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | -2.5 | 0 | 2.5 | 35 |
| J.MUNDT, MIN | TE | 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.7 | 6.7 |
| K.TONEY, NYG | WR | 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | -2.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | -3.5 |
| N.GRAY, KC | TE | 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | -1.4 | 0 | 2.3 | 13 |
| I.PACHECO, KC | RB | 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 |
| M.GOODWIN, SEA | WR | 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 0 | 2.3 | 27.3 |
| J.WARREN, PIT | RB | 3 | 2.5 | 4 | -1.5 | 3.7 | 1 | -3 |
| Q.WATKINS, PHI | WR | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 31.7 |
| T.SHERFIELD, MIA | WR | 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | -1.7 | 0 | 1.7 | 8.3 |
| Z.PASCAL, PHI | WR | 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 2 | 4.7 |
| J.FORTSON, KC | TE | 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | -1.3 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| B.POWELL, LA | WR | 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0 |
| K.HODGE, ATL | WR | 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 | 20.7 |
| R.WHITE, TB | RB | 3 | 1.4 | 3.6 | -2.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1 |
| D.SMYTHE, MIA | TE | 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| M.GESICKI, MIA | TE | 3 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| A.BACCELLIA, ARI | WR | 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | -1.3 | 0 | 2 | 18.3 |
| K.GOLLADAY, NYG | WR | 3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | -2 | 0 | 1.7 | 13.3 |
| M.STRACHAN, IND | WR | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.7 | 22.3 |
| T.CLEVELAND, DEN | WR | 2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | -1 | 0 | 1.5 | 9 |
| D.BELLINGER, NYG | TE | 3 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| R.CRACRAFT, MIA | WR | 3 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| B.SCOTT, PHI | RB | 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| C.KMET, CHI | TE | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 1.7 | 17.7 |
| E.MITCHELL, SF | RB | 1 | 4.1 | 3 | 1.1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| H.HENRY, NE | TE | 3 | 1.9 | 3 | -1.1 | 0 | 1.7 | 16.7 |
| B.EDWARDS, ATL | WR | 2 | 0.6 | 3 | -2.4 | 0 | 1.5 | 17.5 |
| R.MCCLOUD, SF | WR | 3 | 2.6 | 3 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.7 | 19.3 |
| J.KUMEROW, BUF | WR | 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.7 | 15.7 |
| J.HILL, BAL | RB | 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1 |
| J.GUYTON, LAC | WR | 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 38.3 |
| T.HOMER, SEA | RB | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -1.7 |
| M.DAVIS, BAL | RB | 3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -2.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 |
| J.WINFREE, GB | WR | 2 | 1.4 | 2.8 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.5 | 25.5 |
| J.BATES, WAS | TE | 3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | -1.6 | 0 | 1.7 | 7.3 |
| R.GRIFFIN, CHI | TE | 2 | 1.4 | 2.8 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.5 | 22.5 |
| K.HAMLER, DEN | WR | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 0 | 0.5 | 16 |
| T.HILL, NO | TE | 2 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| J.WOODS, IND | TE | 3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0 | 1 | 10.7 |
| C.REYNOLDS, DET | RB | 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| E.SAUBERT, DEN | TE | 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.3 | 22.7 |
| O.HOWARD, HOU | TE | 3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 0 | 1.3 | 19.7 |
| T.MCKITTY, LAC | TE | 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.3 | 4.7 |
| K.RAYMOND, DET | WR | 3 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -1.9 | 0 | 1 | 13.3 |
| J.AGNEW, JAX | WR | 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | -0.7 | 1 | 1 | 16.3 |
| A.BECK, DEN | TE | 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 | 7.7 |
| C.PARKINSON, SEA | TE | 3 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 0 | 1.3 | 18 |
| S.FEHOKO, DAL | WR | 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.3 | 17 |
| C.SIMS, WAS | WR | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 0 | 1 | 33 |
| T.TREMBLE, CAR | TE | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| T.JONES, NO | RB | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| H.HASKINS, TEN | RB | 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 3.3 | 0.3 | -2 |
| T.DAVIS, GB | TE | 3 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| D.FELTON, CLE | RB | 2 | 0.5 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 4.5 |
| T.WALLACE, BAL | WR | 3 | 0.6 | 1.9 | -1.3 | 0 | 1 | 14.3 |
| D.MILNE, WAS | WR | 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| C.WILSON, MIA | WR | 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1 | 8.3 |
| A.FIRKSER, ATL | TE | 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0 | 1 | 7.3 |
| T.KROFT, SF | TE | 2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 0 | 1 | 16.5 |
| B.PRINGLE, CHI | WR | 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 1 | 19.3 |
| J.STOLL, PHI | TE | 3 | 0.5 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| C.CONLEY, HOU | WR | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| J.OLIVER, BAL | TE | 3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.7 | -1 |
| P.HESSE, ATL | TE | 3 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 1 | 4.3 |
| R.DWELLEY, SF | TE | 3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 10.3 |
| L.CAGER, NYJ | TE | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| B.ELLEFSON, MIN | TE | 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| P.DORSETT, HOU | WR | 2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -0.5 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| D.SAMPLE, CIN | TE | 2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| T.HUDSON, NYG | TE | 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 0 | 1 | 9.7 |
| J.REAGOR, MIN | WR | 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.7 |
| L.HUMPHREY, NE | WR | 3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -1.1 | 0 | 1 | 9.7 |
| A.ABDULLAH, LV | RB | 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| M.BREIDA, NYG | RB | 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| W.ROBINSON, NYG | WR | 1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| G.RICCI, CAR | TE | 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.3 |
| C.OTTON, TB | TE | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| P.HENDERSHOT, DAL | TE | 3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 5.7 |
| D.DALLAS, SEA | RB | 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.7 | 1 |
| D.ESKRIDGE, SEA | WR | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| T.JOHNSON, NYJ | RB | 3 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 |
| D.HARTY, NO | WR | 2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 |
| J.FERGUSON, DAL | TE | 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 0 | 1 | 2.3 |
| A.SCHWARTZ, CLE | WR | 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6.7 |
| A.WILLIAMS, ATL | RB | 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.7 | -3.3 |
| T.EBNER, CHI | RB | 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | -0.7 | 2 | 0.3 | -1.7 |
| T.ATWELL, LA | WR | 3 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 19.3 |
| R.RODGERS, LAC | TE | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| J.DEGUARA, GB | TE | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | 6 |
| M.BOONE, DEN | RB | 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| E.TOMLINSON, DEN | TE | 3 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 |
| M.CALLAWAY, NO | WR | 3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Z.GENTRY, PIT | TE | 3 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 |
| M.WILCOX, CIN | TE | 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| D.BELL, CLE | WR | 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 3 |
| D.WILLIAMS, ATL | RB | 1 | 0.2 | 1 | -0.8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| A.RODGERS, GB | WR | 3 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| M.WASHINGTON, DEN | WR | 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 8.7 |
| J.TONGES, CHI | TE | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.5 |
| J.DARDEN, TB | WR | 3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 5 |
| N.TOGIAI, PHI | TE | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 |
| C.OKONKWO, TEN | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.7 |
| C.UZOMAH, NYJ | TE | 2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| C.HUBBARD, CAR | RB | 3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 |
| D.FOREMAN, CAR | RB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 |
| C.HOLLISTER, TEN | WR | 3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 7.3 |
| M.BOYKIN, PIT | WR | 3 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 11.7 |
| D.PETTIS, CHI | WR | 3 | 4 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 7 |
| A.TRAUTMAN, NO | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3 |
| J.SMITH, NYJ | WR | 3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| C.EVANS, CIN | RB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| P.HART, SEA | WR | 3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| D.ARNOLD, JAX | TE | 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| S.MOORE, KC | WR | 3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 5 |
| B.WRIGHT, DET | TE | 3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.3 | 5 |
| A.ROGERS, WAS | TE | 3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.3 | -1.3 |
| Z.WHITE, LV | RB | 3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| S.ANDERSON, ARI | TE | 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| J.HASTY, JAX | RB | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.3 | -2 |
| D.JACKSON, IND | RB | 3 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| G.BRIGHTWELL, NYG | RB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| K.TURPIN, DAL | WR | 3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| G.OLSZEWSKI, PIT | WR | 3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| J.WILLIAMS, WAS | RB | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| J.MASON, SF | RB | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
WEEK 4 BUY-LOW
JAVONTE WILLIAMS
Williams ranks second among all running backs in XFP with 20.5 per game, behind only Joe Mixon. His seven targets per game trail only Austin Ekeler and Breece Hall (each with 7.3 targets per game) for the lead at the position.
Teammate Melvin Gordon‘s presence was the primary concern for Williams coming into the season, but Williams is seeing as much or more volume than Gordon in every major category. Williams is leading in average XFP (20.5 to 13.4), carries (12.7 to 11.3), and targets (7 to 3).
Williams has scored zero touchdowns on the season despite seeing plenty of volume, which is a major reason for his struggles. Gordon and Williams have each seen three carries inside the five-yard line, but Williams has not been able to convert any into scores.
Gordon’s presence does limit Williams’ touchdown upside, but the bigger factor has been the Broncos offense scoring only three total touchdowns through three games. Russell Wilson is among the bottom of the NFL with a 1.9% touchdown percentage, which is unsustainably low for even the NFL’s worst quarterbacks, let alone one of his caliber. Wilson’s career average is 6.2%, so look for the Broncos offense to put up more points as everyone gets more comfortable in the new offense.
Depending on the league, you might not need to add as much as you think to a player like Cordarrelle Patterson, James Robinson, or Clyde Edwards-Helaire to get Williams. I would bet on Williams to outscore those players over the rest of the season, and Williams also has access to elite upside if Gordon ever misses time.
AJ DILLON
Dillon got off to an explosive start in Week 1, scoring 20.1 PPR points, but he has scored just 7.7 and 5.8 each of the last two weeks, respectively. Teammate Aaron Jones has been the better fantasy producer, but it may be surprising to see that Dillon actually has the better workload profile. Dillon leads Jones in XFP and is seeing three more carries per game, while also matching Jones in targets.
Jones has scored three touchdowns on the season to Dillon’s one, which makes up a large chunk of the difference in production. But despite the touchdown numbers, Dillon appears to have a slight edge in goal-line work.
Dillon has handled five of Green Bay’s nine carries inside the red zone, including all three attempts inside the five. All three of these attempts came on separate drives. Based on this usage, I would expect Dillon to score more touchdowns moving forward.
Similar to Williams, Dillon has league-winning potential if Jones misses time while still getting enough work to plug into your lineup each week. He shouldn’t be as valuable as Williams, so you might be able to get him for a lower-level starting receiver depending on your team’s needs. You might also be able to flip one of the running backs mentioned in the Williams section for Dillon and a piece on top in a larger league if you can’t turn them into an elite player.
PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYERS THAT ARE STILL GOOD BUY-LOWS
WEEK 4 SELL-HIGH
JAMES ROBINSON
James Robinson is currently the RB3 overall on a surprising Jaguars team. However, his XFP numbers suggest he may have trouble sustaining his current pace.
A common theme in this article is that early-season touchdown totals have a dramatic impact on PPG numbers. Sure enough, Robinson has four total touchdowns on the season, which puts him on pace to score an unsustainable 22.7 touchdowns in 17 games.
Beyond the obvious touchdown regression, I have concerns about Robinson’s workload. Teammate Travis Etienne is already taking the majority of the passing work and earning 3.3 targets per game compared to Robinson’s 2.3.
Robinson has a clear lead in rushing attempts, leading Etienne 18 to 9.3 in that department, but I believe Robinson’s rushing attempts will decrease moving forward for several reasons.
First, the Jaguars have two blowout wins in three games. Despite the early-season success, the Jaguars still only rank 25th in PFF’s Vegas-Implied NFL Power Rankings. This is somewhat offset by ranking 26th in remaining strength of schedule, but a roughly average team like the Jaguars won’t continue to have two blowout wins every three games.
Second, the gap in carries narrowed last week. In Week 3, Robinson saw 17 carries to Etienne’s 13. Etienne’s carries have increased each week, so Robinson’s current 66% rush share on the season might be overselling his future role. In addition, Etienne is effectively a rookie after missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, and rookies generally see more volume and produce more as the season goes on.
First, I would try adding another piece to Robinson to get to an elite running back. Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara would be the dream targets if you have other significant assets to add to Robinson. Javonte Williams would be a bit cheaper, or you could go after an elite quarterback or mid-tier receiver depending on team needs.
ALLEN LAZARD
Allen Lazard is simply bad at earning targets, and earning targets is the only way to consistently score fantasy points at the wide receiver position. Excluding his rookie year when he played one game, his career season-long target shares are 10%, 15%, and 12% last season. I’m not expecting him to earn more targets than Davante Adams, but a good receiver next to Adams should be able to earn far more than 10-15%.
Over the two games Lazard has played this season, he has earned nine of a total 60 targets, good for a putrid 15% target share. Teammate Romeo Doubs saw 8 of 35 targets last week alone (22.8% target share). He caught all eight passes and had two more receptions in that game than Lazard’s six on the season.
Allen Lazard is considerably less valuable than the other players discussed in this article, but I believe he still has some value. You probably can’t get it done, but guys like Chris Godwin and Chris Olave are both far better bets than Lazard and are only slightly ahead of him in the current FantasyPros ECR. If you could attach something to Lazard to get a player like that or add Lazard to another player to get even a slight upgrade somewhere else, I would do that.
