“If you chase two rabbits, both will get away.”
Oftentimes, becoming a dynasty championship contender comes at the cost of sacrificing some, or a lot, of your team’s future. The clock is ticking, and if you don’t win a ‘ship before the age cliff hits, you’re stuck in rebuild mode with no trophy to show for it. And so goes the dichotomy of a contender: How can I make moves to better my future, without sacrificing right now?
If you’re fortunate, you may be rostering a player, or players, that can help you accomplish getting better now and for the future. These players are younger veterans who go on a tear. They’ve been decent or good already, but not this good. This year, they’ve reached another level, hitting peak production right in the prime age of their career.
THE 2023 JK DOBBINS CONUNDRUM
In 2023, JK Dobbins is one of those candidates. As a rookie in 2020, Dobbins caught up to the pro game, and it showed as he rattled off an insane 6.43 yards per carry and seven touchdowns during weeks 11-17. At only 12.8 carries and 0.5 catches per game, JK was still the RB9 per game in half-PPR during that span. It may be an understatement that injuries have seriously hampered him the last two seasons.
Enter this year and, barring any lingering contract disputes, Dobbins’ ceiling can’t be ignored. His run at the end of 2020 is a great jumping-off point for what his realistic ceiling could look like. Maybe not 6.43 yards per carry, but bump up his carries per game from 12.83 to 15 or 16, and he could still hit the same 82.5 rush yards per game.
PROJECTING DOBBINS’ 2023 CEILING
Don’t forget that Dobbins was the preferred goal-line back during that stretch. From inside the 10:
And from inside the 5:
Lamar Jackson did command six rushes from inside the 10 himself during that stretch, during a career-high 1.07 carries-per-game inside the 10 that season. So if we’re getting really nit-picky, that number was down to 0.71 for ’21 and ’22 combined, and perhaps that number dips a little more if the Ravens feel so inclined in order to protect their starting quarterback.
Dobbins scored seven touchdowns in those six games in 2020. Again, a little lofty, that’s more than a touchdown per game, but in terms of ceiling, I think a little less than a score per game is a safe bet, so let’s call it 15 total touchdowns for the year.
Adding to that touchdown total is the potential for JK’s receiving role to expand from practically non-existent, particularly now that Greg Roman is out as offensive coordinator to Todd Monken now calling the shots.
Monken, whose scheme enabled the Buccaneers to put up 320 pass yards per game in 2018 with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, looks to expand the Ravens’ aerial attack. He’s a guy that got his running backs an average of 5.5 targets per game while offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers from 2016-2018, an uptick from 3.9 during the Roman days.
No offense to Gus Edwards, but if Monken wants to put the ball in space into the hands of players with more potential for explosive plays, then those targets will lean Dobbins’ way. And if Jackson can orchestrate the aerial attack better than Winston or Fitzmagic could, then I don’t think a per-game average of three catches for 20 yards and an occasional TD is too lofty of expectations for JK.
Put it all together, and I project 15 carries, 82.5 rush yards, three catches, and 20 pass yards all on a per-game basis, with 15 total touchdowns, as a realistic ceiling for Dobbins in ’23. I think there’s a little more room for all of those numbers to be a little higher honestly, but as it stands, the aforementioned ceiling would have made him the RB3 per game last season, an average of the RB4.7 per game over the last decade.
WHAT IF THE CEILING BECOMES REALITY?
As an aging contender, what happens if it’s halfway through the season, and Dobbins is a top-five fantasy running back? The first thought might be to try to run with it toward a championship, but remember:
- JK’s injury troubles
- The potential for defenses to adjust to the Ravens’ fresh new-look offense under Monken, whether in-season or after a full offseason
- 8-9 games is a fairly small sample size
All of these factors raise the possibility that an early-season breakout could be fluky and may end up being the highest production you’ll ever see from JK.
Fantasycalc.com currently values Dobbins as the RB19, KeepTradeCut as the RB20, that’s around the 1.11-1.12 in 2023 rookie drafts. An early-season breakout could catapult him into the multiple-firsts category, making him a sneaky buy-low today, and a potentially terrific sell-high in a few months if you trade him away at his peak.
NAVIGATING THE DICHOTOMY AS AN AGING CONTENDER
Say in this scenario you decide that Dobbins’ early-season breakout is a fluke, and you’re going to sell high, what type of package are looking to get in return for your aging contender? There are two basic scenarios: either add more win-now pieces or try to get the best of both worlds, chase both rabbits and trade for win-now and future assets.
The latter option is tricky though. In theory, the more parts of the trade package you get that are future-minded, the less the overall trade is going to help you win now. And at this point, claiming which route is better than the other is more complicated than what can be discussed here. Roster makeup, trade assets involved, the difference in value between multiple trade offers, and simply which route you just feel like taking, are all relevant factors in the ideal next step for your dynasty squad.
But one thing is clear, and it’s a point I personally revisit all the time: don’t cut yourself off from avenues to value. It’s great to have a player smash expectations, especially if your team is already a contender. But change can be cruel, fluky stretches can happen, in the blink of an eye, and steadfast dynasty players try their best to curb its negative effects.
A SCENARIO THAT APPLIES TO MORE THAN JK DOBBINS
The point of this thought exercise is situation-specific more than player-specific. Players that fell into this situation last season include Geno Smith (still young-ish for a QB), Christian Kirk, and you could make an argument for Josh Jacobs.
Other players this scenario could apply to this season include Lamar Jackson, Cam Akers, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, DJ Moore, Kadarius Toney, Jerry Jeudy, Rashod Bateman, Marquise Brown, I would argue Darren Waller, and probably others.
While other places are valuing JK Dobbins as RB19 and RB20, maybe all this ceiling talk is starting to get to my head, as JK Dobbins ranks RB10, 37th overall, in my RSJ Half-PPR Superflex Dynasty Rankings.
