When drafting from the No. 3 spot in a 2023 fantasy football draft, managers know there will be a couple of potential league-winners available. Still, ‘Best Player Available’ is out the window once that first pick is made, and layers of nuance begin.
Read more: “How to draft” from the… 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 spot
Here’s how I attacked the Roto Street Journal 12-team mock draft with Half-PPR scoring (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and FLEX) from the 3 spot:
1.03: TE1, Travis Kelce
At 33 years old, the positional advantage is still absurd, and Kelce hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet. Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey went 1.01 and 1.02. I couldn’t argue with taking Austin Ekeler or Ja’Marr Chase here because taking a tight end in the first round has always felt weird, knowing that I’ll miss out on so-o-o-o many high-level backs and receivers. It will affect my depth at another position(s) more than other teams at some point, but the only thing this pick dictates for the rest of my draft is that I’m set at starting TE for the rest of the season while he puts up WR1 numbers.
2.10: RB1, Josh Jacobs
At the time of this pick (8/21), we did not know about Josh Jacobs’ availability for the 2023 season. However, I got him as the ninth running back off the board, and now that he’s signed (as I expected), the gamble paid off. At the end of the second round, I got one of the top running backs in fantasy.
3.03: WR1, Keenan Allen
Five straight years with at least 97 catches ended due to injury last year, but he was on pace for 112. From 2017-2021, he’s finished WR3, 12, 8, 14, and 14. Not bad for the 15th receiver taken off the board. But, the real X-factor is Kellen Moore, who leaves a head coach who’s allergic to scoring points in Dallas to charge up the Chargers’ aerial attack. In particular, Moore is moving Allen around the formation, keeping him from being “stuck at the slot” like under old OC Joe Lombardi. With a rookie Quentin Johnston and an inconsistent Mike Williams competing for WR targets, Allen has a rock-solid and consistent floor to anchor down the WR position, and Moore’s arrival puts a top-six WR fantasy finish in Allen’s range of outcomes.
4.10: RB2, JK Dobbins
Many have Dobbins ranked as a mid-to-low RB2, which is understandable, in a way. The injuries the past two years can distract from how much he was coming along by the end of his rookie season. I’ve laid out how I think JK can realistically be a top-six fantasy back this season, so for me, this choice was easy.
5.03: QB1, Trevor Lawrence
Round 5 is normally about when I’m checking my list of positional anchors and seeing who might be able to last another round or two so I can grab them then. The only locked-in starting anchors left on the board at QB were TLaw and Deshaun Watson. Even if Deshaun fell to me in the 6th, uncertainty and a mediocre return last year make my belief that he’ll be worthy of anchor status riskier than taking Lawrence and locking up the QB position. Waiting on a QB until the later rounds is not very popular this year, and it’s hard for me to disagree. With Calvin Ridley in the mix, I’m ready to see the Jaguars offense take the next step.
6.10: RB3 (FLEX), Javonte Williams
Even though I had two running backs to only one receiver at this point, upside called to me again. Players like Javonte, Breece Hall, and Zach Ertz are returning from ACL tears, seemingly faster and better than players in the past with the same injury. So, since I’m drafting with playoffs in mind over early-season success, I’m not putting too much stock in Williams needing time to get his sea legs back under him. The closer to the fantasy playoffs we get, the farther away he’ll be from the effects of the ACL tear. And man, do I love it if I get a fantasy RB1 in the FLEX.
7.03: RB4 (Bench), Rachaad White
It’s well documented that volume isn’t the concern with Rachaad White. It’s efficiency. At this point, the receiving options were uninspiring enough that I decided to bet on the possibility that Tampa Bay’s offensive line could be better than the cellar-dwellers they were in ’22, and that Rachaad’s efficiency woes were partly a product of him being a rookie. The upside was enough for me to take the risk and lose out on guys like Michael Pittman, Jordan Addison, and Christian Kirk in my WR2 slot. If Sean Tucker gets a significant role, that may be enough to make this a bad pick.
8.10: WR2, Kadarius Toney
Things get experimental here, I’m not going to lie. I’m looking at ADPs and wondering if I can get the three Chiefs receivers with the most upside. I got one. Treylon Burks and Courtland Sutton are off the board before my next pick.
9.03: WR2a, Skyy Moore
I got two. Moore’s struggles during his rookie season have reportedly been significantly due to players needing time to get up to speed with Andy Reid’s offensive style. It’s a narrative I’m buying and why I’m not big on Rashee Rice seeing a lot of work during his rookie season.
10.10: WR3, Rashod Bateman
I generally try to buy low when players’ value drops due to injury concerns. We’ve seen so little of Bateman due to injuries that it’s too hard for me to label him a bust yet. The arrival of Todd Monken as OC could light a fire under the Ravens’ aerial attack that was never happening under Greg Roman, and Lamar Jackson has gone so far as to refer to Bateman as WR1.
I try not to put too much stock in preseason coach- or player-speak either, but the fact remains that the talent that made him a first-round pick puts him at the level of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., and his experience with Lamar gives him the edge.
11.03: WR2b, Justyn Ross
I got three. Could Ross struggle in what essentially would be his rookie season on the field? Yes, but he was arguably a first-round draft pick if not for his foot injury and concerns over congenital fusion in his spine going into last year’s NFL Draft. This season, he has a year of practice, mental reps, and glowing reviews from his quarterback. All things considered, Ross has a path to the Chiefs’ alpha-WR in ’23.
12.10: QB2/Bench, Russell Wilson
Another narrative I’m buying into is that Russ’s 2022 could be a mulligan under a coach in Nathaniel Hackett that I think only Aaron Rodgers believes is good. It’s going to largely be about whether or not Sean Payton can play quarterback whisperer, and things are looking good, so far anyway. Regardless, I would think Wilson’s season has to be better than 2022, providing a decent floor for a QB2, and an exciting ceiling if Russ finds his groove again.
13.03: WR4/Bench, Marvin Mims
The news broke the day of our mock draft that Jerry Jeudy could miss “several weeks” with a hamstring injury. With Tim Patrick out for the year, that gives Mims an opportunity to start Week 1. I haven’t been looking for Mims to have much success, particularly his rookie year, but he has an opportunity now to build regular season game-time chemistry with Russell Wilson. As the first Broncos receiver drafted by Sean Payton, chemistry could earn him playing time even when Jeudy returns.
14.10: TE2/Bench, Mike Gesicki
Gesicki is uber-athletic and has a season as the TE7 under his belt in 2020 (before Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Mike McDaniel‘s TE-killing scheme showed up). He joins back up with Bill O’Brien, who recruited him to Penn State, in a Patriots offense that will have an actual Offensive Coordinator calling the offensive plays and an OC who’s no stranger to using 2-TE sets. Between Gesicki and Hunter Henry, Henry seems poised to be more of the blocking tight end, with Gesicki in more of a slot role, a narrative that’s been helped by him getting work with New England’s wide receivers this season.
Final Roster:
QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Josh Jacobs
RB: JK Dobbins
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Kadarius Toney
WR: Rashod Bateman
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Javonte Williams
Bench: Russell Wilson, Rachaad White, Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross, Marvin Mims, Mike Gesicki
FURTHER OBSERVATIONS
Things were tricky when round 6 came along. The remaining running backs’ upside was too tempting to pass up, leaving wide receiver as my weakest position. Drafting alongside the RSJ crew, lingering question marks aren’t surprising.
‘Best Player Available’ vs ‘Positional Need’ is an eternal debate, and I’m not here to say that fading wide receivers in this draft wouldn’t come back to bite me. But any draft strategy has risk, if you’re in a league worth it’s salt. The best we can do to give ourselves an edge is to give our edge the best justification we can. Happy Drafting Season!
You can find the link to the draft board here.
