Marvin Harrison Jr. is the biggest WR bust of all time! Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will ruin fantasy teams in 2024! Saquon Barkley is going to shatter all-time records at the RB position!
Welcome to week two of the NFL and fantasy football! Where hot takes are flowing and migraines are growing as panic is near! It’s a little early for Christmas but fantasy football really does rival the Yuletide season as the most wonderful time of the year.
The week one overreaction and full-scale tilting that commences after the first week of the season really is a spectacle. Hyperbolizations are thrown around like beads at Mardi Gras and fantasy wolves swoop in and stuff their rosters.
Everyone should take a breath, focus, regroup, and read on as we discuss our favorite Week 2 buy low, sell high players after Week 1.
Week 2 Buy Low
Terry McLaurin
I normally avoid McLaurin in fantasy football. I have an aversion to big-play-dependent and touchdown-dependent players as a general rule, but there are always exceptions and times that sanity and rationality have to win the day!
Jayden Daniels started his first game as an NFL quarterback, and historically, rookie quarterbacks don’t throw many touchdowns. In fact, since 2000, the average touchdown rate among rookie passers has been 3.9%, with an average of 16 TDs.
What’s the golden rule in fantasy? Chase opportunity! McLaurin’s average depth of target (aDot) of 20 yards and a whopping 64% of the team’s air yards suggest better days are ahead for McLaurin. He was a missed bomb by Daniels away from a long touchdown and a big week.
Note how the ball was just slightly out of McLaurin’s reach! He led the WR group with four targets and, without a single red-zone target, still offered a 6.9 xFP floor with his opportunity on minimal target work. When the passing game gets going, McLaurin will be the main beneficiary. Buy now!
Javonte Williams
It’s been two years since the ACL ruined one of the most hyped fantasy seasons that wasn’t that I’ve ever seen.
Sean Payton is known as the master of the running back position for fantasy. Payton’s offenses have generated top-2-ranked backfields in 12 of his 17 years of calling plays. Nobody marries the run-and-pass games better than Payton.
Based on their usage, Javonte Williams (9.3) and Jaleel McLaughlin (14.8) combined for 24.1 backfield xFP points last week.
McLaughlin saw one red zone rush and one red zone target, while Williams saw three rush attempts inside the 20.
Week one was an all-out dumpster fire for the Broncos offense, but it was Bo Nix’s first game as a rookie as well. The Seahawks made a point to make Nix beat them with his arm while keeping the running backs in check. With a combined -15 fantasy points over expectation, there’s plenty of fantasy juice to be squeezed from this backfield as the offense continues to improve.
Williams will likely be the main back and will dominate red zone work, while McLaughlin will bring the spark as a change-of-pace option. Buy Williams while owners panic about their investment and pad your flex position accordingly.
Other intriguing buy-low players include: Devin Singletary, Travis Etienne, DK Metcalf, Dalton Kincaid
Week 2 Sell High
Joe Mixon
Before you all chase me through the streets, I agree with you! That was the best Joe Mixon had looked on the football field since his days in Oklahoma. That’s also EXACTLY why it might be time to sell. Strike while the value is hot!
Remember, Mixon is 28 years old and doesn’t project to be getting better with age. He hasn’t come close to sniffing his staggering 5.3 yards per carry total since 2018. Since the 2018 season, Mixon has averaged:
- 4.1 YPC
- 3.6 YPC
- 4.1 YPC
- 3.9 YPC
- 4.0 YPC
“But what about that touchdown equity?!?!” Since 2021, Mixon has scored 30 rushing touchdowns. That’s JUST south of 10 per season. So let’s recap. Mixon is likely past his prime, historically inefficient as a running back, and volume/touchdown dependent.
Last season, as an inefficient back, Mixon ranked 7th in xFP/g and was the RB11 in points per game. He offers a high floor. I’m not saying sell him just to sell him, and he will be unusable. That’s asinine to suggest!
The devil lies in the usage. Again, he’s an older running back with a lot of tread on the tires. In fact, he’s touched the football 1,887 times in his career. He isn’t going to get 30 carries per game. Across his career, he has averaged 16.3 rushes and 2.9 receptions per game. That’s a 13-touch drop-off.
Mixon scored +7.0 FPOE in week one (23.0 xFP) and it is highly improbable that number repeats itself.
It’s inevitable; it could happen as soon as next week. Mixon will regress to the mean. Sell Mixon for another workhorse RB and a good WR, TE, or QB, and fill out the roster for the championship run!
Stefon Diggs
This one likely goes without saying.
Diggs scored on two short area passes in the red zone. Overall, his role did not offer a reasonable floor in fantasy to suggest keeping him at value.
His aDot was 1.5, and 24 of his 33 yards came after the catch. In fact, out of a score of 100% weighted opportunity rating, Diggs scored a pitiful 31.57%. For reference, Nico Collins and Tank Dell scored 73.7% and 63.5% respectively, with 15.5 and 15.0 respective aDots.
In fact, if it weren’t for his three targets inside of the 10, Diggs’ role would be almost negligible in Houston. He scored 5.76 FPOE, which is on the back of the pair of touchdowns. Had he not scored those two scores, Diggs would have been the WR50 on the week.
Like I said above, I don’t bet on touchdown-dependent players. Sell him for maximum profit and run.
Other sell-high options to consider: Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker, Isaiah Likely
SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
- Wan’Dale Robinson – 12 targets, including three inside the red zone. Robinson is a crafty route-runner and has reliable hands. He’s a perfect complement to the coverage black hole that Malik Nabers could provide. Scored an abysmal -13.43 FPOE, thanks to Daniel Jones‘ utter ineptitude at the position.
- Jerome Ford – Caught 6/7 targets and saw 19 total opportunities. Could hold that valuable Kareem Hunt role with benefits once Nick Chubb returns.
- D’Andre Swift – Led the team in RB opportunities but failed to garner a target. He appeared to get a little momentum going at the end of the game after a disastrous start. However, Caleb Williams‘ first start was an unmitigated disaster. This likely improves and Swift could become a valuable fantasy option in a couple of weeks.
