Seattle is banking the risk it’s taking with its new quarterback is worth letting the team’s signal caller from the previous five seasons walk ahead of free agency.
Geno Smith was traded from the Seahawks to Las Vegas for a third-round pick on March 7. That’s it.
In what seems like Seattle wanting to move on from the 11-year vet, the Seahawks Wire reported that Smith, in fact, turned down a deal and requested a trade.
The Seahawks then went from quarterback negotiations to quarterback targeting.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold was arguably the most valuable free agent quarterback, unlikely to return to Minnesota after not signing the franchise tag.
Darnold, who signed a one-year deal to be the Vikings’ backup last offseason, found himself starting when rookie J.J. McCarthy blew his ACL. But, Minnesota said McCarthy was its long-term plan, and at the end of the day, kept its word.
Additionally, Smith rejoins former coach Pete Carroll in Las Vegas, and its quarterback room of Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. Darnold joins his former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, too, in a system that has essentially blown up its offense and is rebuilding.
Despite a career year in Minnesota—that saw Darnold win ⅔ of his games played with the Vikings, as he did his previous six seasons in the NFL—it’s a one-and-done. Seattle is banking on those unexpected achievements continuing in the Northwest.
WHAT DOES GENO SMITH BRING TO LAS VEGAS?
If I were being petty, I’d say its only quarterback.
But, truthfully, trading for Smith saves the Raiders from potential multiple development years under center.
While Las Vegas needs help at offensive line and offensive skill positions, the Raiders can now make that their main focus and not have to draft a quarterback out of a weak class at the position.
Smith achieved the highest completion percentage (70%) in his final season of his five-year Seattle tenure. He also more than doubled his career yardage in Seattle from his four years playing for the New York Jets: 12,961 to 5,962.
But will a lack of weapons – or young ones should they be found in the draft – be a complement to Smith?
GENO SMITH FANTASY OUTLOOK: BREAKING DOWN THE PROS AND CONS
There’s a lot to like about Smith, but there are also patterns fans are tired of seeing.
Smith had multiple turnovers in seven of 17 games last season. While he had six games with no turnovers, he did fumble in multiple of them – but Seattle recovered.
Along with questionable ball security, Smith often has questionable reads in the short and long field. Some of those resulted in deep ball interceptions or punts.
It’s unfair to blame all of Smith’s struggles on himself, when the Seahawks’ struggling offensive line made the quarterback uncomfortable often.
Leaky pass protection and a first-year offensive coordinator didn’t set the Seattle offense up for success. As The Ringer said, Smith scrambling allowed him just enough time to get a throw off. However, that wasn’t always a good thing.
Seattle’s run game also struggled in the 2024-25 season.
Kenneth Walker played the least amount of games in his career, and had career-lows in touchdowns (7) and yards per carry (3.7). Backup Zach Charbonnet had one 100-yard game in his absence, but didn’t top the 50-yard plateau as a starter but once more.
But, as a starter, Smith has proven that at the beginning of his career and his tenure in Seattle, he is able to work with a variety of talent. There was a gap in playing time when he was with the Giants and Chargers, but Smith has been relatively consistent at the bookends of his career – while getting better the longer he played.
Going down a rabbit hole of statistics, Pro Football Focus reported Smith had an average turnover-worthy play rate of 2.6 percent last season. That was seventh-best in the NFL, despite the amount of times the ball didn’t land where he intended.
More times than not, if Smith isn’t rostered in a fantasy league, owners will pick him up for a bye week replacement or when their starter has a bad matchup. Confidently, Smith could be booked for multiple scores and a 200-yard game. If Las Vegas gets him even a serviceable back and another option in the passing game, I like that outlook for him again even on one of the poorer league teams.
WHAT DOES SAM DARNOLD BRING TO SEATTLE?
A risk, at best.
Darnold does not have a track record of sustained success, making many fantasy footballers, sports bettors and analysts fear a one-hit wonder.
After bouncing around from the New York Jets to the Carolina Panthers and then the San Francisco 49ers before his standout year in Minnesota, he left much to be desired.
Maybe it’s important to note that the Jets and Panthers also left a lot to be desired in its receiving and offensive protection options to help the young signal-caller. He also only played part of one season in San Francisco, starting just one game to end the regular season – so can it count?
So what changed when he went to Minnesota?
Justin Jefferson is a pretty good upgrade.
But O’Connell is also a quarterback whisperer, and the Vikings had a cohesive run and receiving game, outside of Jefferson, with a better-than-average offensive line. Even after losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw.
Minnesota’s line was better relative to the league when not facing the blitz, ranking just outside the top 20 in pressure rate (34.1%), Pro Football and Sports Network reports. The team’s numbers look skewed due to the amount of time they were asked to be on defense.
Meanwhile, no player on Darnold’s new starting offensive line has been in the league before the 2022 season.
The Seahawks also said “see ya” to its top two receiving threats: Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
It looked as though Darnold would have Jaxon Smith-Njigba as his only “veteran” receiver before the draft. But Seattle understood it must add to its receivers to give Darnold options and confidence.
That confidence will come by the name of Cooper Kupp, who signed a three-year deal on Friday.
If the Seahawks can keep its running backs healthy and explore at least one more receiving weapon via the draft, Darnold’s transition won’t seem so do or die.
One year of offensive support? Top 10 fantasy quarterback. Years without weapons and structure? Not a Top 10 fantasy quarterback.
SAM DARNOLD FANTASY OUTLOOK: WHAT CAN WE LOOK FORWARD TO?
More than likely Darnold will find himself scrambling moreso than not with less time in the pocket than he wants.
But, when in the pocket, Darnold brings a pocket-passing confidence. As a fantasy football player, that makes me want to believe in the Seahawks’ number one receiver – who now could be either Kupp or Smith-Njigba – like we do for players such as Malik Nabers with the Giants, or Garrett Wilson with the Jets.
That also means we can in-theory trust Walker on the ground. Funny, right? We can forgive one bad season but not believe in one good season from Darnold?
Anyway, I want to believe that Darnold has taken enough pro snaps to continue succeeding in shaking off sack attempts and throwing with accuracy and pace when on the move – especially if he will be a lot. He can also become a runner who can move the sticks with his legs.
After a handful of games under center out west, we’ll know if he’s a bye week replacement or an under the radar superflex quarterback based on Seattle’s draft.
Seattle may not win as many games as it wants, but counting the offense out of not putting up fights with Darnold is foolish.
Editor’s Note: This article was updated after Cooper Kupp signed with Seattle.
